Lions lose - ROG to blame!

Ah, the irony.

In my last post I talked about ROG being a safe choice, Hook being a more risky one if needed, but that I'd go for Hook. If only Geech had listened to me!

O'Gara came on to fill a hole left by the departure of Roberts and O'Driscoll. He's not half the centre that either of them is, he's not half the centre that Hook is, and Hook isn't half the centre that Roberts and BOD are. What happens? ROG misses a tackle, the boks score a try to pull level. Would Hook have made it? Maybe not, but he's a lot more likely to have made it than ROG you'd have thought. Would the boks have scored a try anyway? Maybe, but we'll never know. So, the boks draw level.

Then, in a moment of madness he kicks the ball, chases it rather than kicks it out AND fouls the bok player in the air. Steyn steps up, on his home field remember, and casually slots a 55m penalty and the boks win. Whilst the first one can be argued, the second can't really. It was ROG's fault from start to end.

As The Rugby Paper headline screams "Lions in heartbreak as O'Gara goes ga-ga." Very true.

Next week, I think a bigger margin for the boks. I was thinking that the Lions might sneak that win, but Roberts (broken thumb), BOD (possible concussion), Jenkins (fractured eye socket), D. Jones (dislocated shoulder) are all out of contention it seems. That's the attacking and a big chunk of the defending force of the backs gone, and two-thirds of the front row that turned the scrum from a disaster 8 days ago into a strong positive yesterday. Some of that credit goes to Shaw too I'm sure, but next week we might see how Vickery + Shaw stand up against The Beast, and I think it might be a painful area for the Lions again. Vickery and Sheridan will not contribute around the park in the same way as Jenkins and Jones - in fairness they've never really had to, but they just don't. Vickery is better than Sheridan at it, but the Welsh props are in a different league.

I hope that the boks didn't target those players, I don't think they play that dirty, but it is curious that 4 of the best 6 players on the Lions side are injured and probably can't play next week.

I've also read criticism of S. Jones for a quiet game. I have to wonder what game they were watching. He kicked from hand and tee beautifully, and his kicking from hand was almost always the right choice both of time to kick and positioning of the kick. The rest of what he did could be dismissed as "he handed the ball to Roberts and BOD" and he also very occasionally ran at the line. That would ignore that lovely off-load for Kearney's try, and the fact that he regularly put BOD, Roberts or both into space at speed. When you have possibly the best current centre partnership in the world outside you, as a 10 surely your job falls into "we need to kick" or "I need to pass to them" unless you have the magic and majesty of a Carter at his best and the skill, speed and confidence to use them both as decoys and go yourself. S. Jones isn't a Carter. Even Giteau isn't a Carter. Good tactical decisions and good passing from a number 10 on a world stage - letting the Lions build their lead after all, quite comfortably - can you really say he had a bad game?

I think Kearney was unlucky not to get MOTM. He got mine. I don't remember a mistake all match and having him catch everything and dominate the air must have given everyone else (except ROG) huge confidence. I still think he's not as good as a fully fit Byrne, but yesterday he was immense. Shaw? Obviously the commentators saw something I didn't. I don't think he had a bad game, but I don't think he was that good either. Oh well.

Lions v Emerging Boks

So, we had a draw, 13-all.

Actually, despite the doom and gloom that surrounds the press reactions, I'm quite positive. I expected the Lions to lose, because the gulf between the dirt trackers (in general) and the test Lions is quite large, and I thought the emerging Boks would be a bit better than they proved to be.

What did we learn? They're not going to pick Martyn Williams to start. Fools. He's not necessarily as good at some parts of being an open side as the Irish guy, but he will compete, and compete well with the fetcher for the Boks, better than his rival does. Apparently that doesn't matter, and again the Lions are going to struggle at the breakdown and could lose the match because of it. Geech - you're starting to make me wonder why you left Wasps and if you're getting a bit old and tired.

The other Williams, Shane, is still not quite at his best, but I think he had a better game under far worse conditions that Monye. His defence was good, he was fast and smart to the breakdown, chasing the ball and the like. I guess, since he played the full match he won't get a nod either. Fitzgerald is an interesting one - he's sharper in attack than Shane, but sloppier and weaker in defence. I think Fitzgerald will get the nod because whilst a winger's defence errors can cost a match, there are lots of other defenders too, but a winger's attacking frailties can cost a match as Monye showed last weekend.

Hook and O'Gara got a run out. O'Gara kicks tactically better (or at least more consistently) than Jones or Hook, although all three can and do kick well from the tee and from hand. Jones engages and uses his backs more aggressively than O'Gara though, making the attacking side work better, and tackles better. Interesting choice there. Hook, as well all know, is a much better attacking option. He is also quite inconsistent - he varies between sheer genius and really quite mediocre (for a high class international). I might pick Hook for the bench. Under a range of circumstances needing to introduce him to change the nature of the game (for example in the last 10 minutes of last Saturday's match if he'd been there) is a gamble worth taking. If the Lions are ahead of course, and Jones is injured, he might have a rush of madness and give the game away but such are the choices you have to make.

Vickery probably had his last run out in a red jersey too. He demonstrated quite nicely that he's still a quality prop. Whatever the impact of the beast was on him, it's hard to argue that it was one of those things where the techniques of the two just meshed in a way that gave a huge advantage to The Beast, and hence the scrum fell apart. It doesn't make Vickery a bad player, it just means he's got a specific weakness that the other guy (unlike a lot of other high quality props in the world) can exploit.

I'm sure they'd have liked a win. The draw doesn't rebuild momentum that much. But they didn't deserve a win the way they played. Looking ahead - it's a hard call, until you remember the venue. Anywhere else I think the come-back, the end of the last test, and that need to win to keep the series alive would mean the Lions stood a real chance. But at Loftus? Bulls' country... fat chance. I think it will stay close, but the Boks to win by 7 to 10 points.

Lions v South Africa - first test

Although the game isn't over, the story of the game can really be written - and thanks to the laptop I can type AND watch the rest of it.

The game hinged around Mears and Vickery having a shocker, in particular Vickery who got mauled by The Beast and thus the scrum turned into a source of endless penalties for the Boks. Vickery off, Jones on, and the penalties basically stopped. Mears actually didn't do a bad job of his hooker duties when allowed to, but that extra bit he brings, of ball-carrying and off-loading around the park was never there. It's hard to be sure why, because when Rees came on he did get the ball and get to run it around the park. He's not the off-loader that Mears is, but he got the ball far more often.

Just as I was to write about the awesome defence of the Boks too, Steyn disposed Monye as he should have crossed the try line to bring it to 26-19 with a kick to come. It's 26-14 still, and yet if the Lions had scored all the tries they made that would have made it 33-26 to the Lions with the kick to come. Someone (Pienar?) made a spectacular save in the first half on Monye. Botha knocked the ball out of Phillips' hand as he was stretching for the line. Steyn bounced Monye... three tries that without heroic defence would have been scored.

The rustiness that I, and a lot of people thought might make this a win for the Lions, is suddenly starting to show in the last 10 minutes though. Apparently the boks had been training 25 minutes on, 25 off against their emerging counterparts. But 40 on, 10 off, 30 on at test match intensity seems to have run the tank empty.

The prospects might be grim (assuming the Lions don't score again in the last 3 minutes - another chance gone on an interception this time) for the series, but the Lions are not entirely without hope. The Lions backs made line breaks, opened holes, moved the ball around nicely. Monye just dropped it... and Bowe did too in fairness. Roberts and BOD were awesome and destroyed their opponents regularly. With Jones and Rees the scrum was much better, and provided the platform for the Lions' third try. My team selection shows Vickery and Mears, but for next week, I'm thinking an all Welsh front-row. I really didn't think I'd be writing that for a Lions tour. Jenkins was great too, how often have you seen a prop tackle Habana in open play?

The Lions need to finish better, and give away fewer penalties, and they have a chance. The Boks have to play for 80 minutes. Interesting times.

Lions v Southern Kings

The management squad may have said they weren't going to decide until today, but yesterday's run proved why there are dirt-trackers and test players. Not that being a Lions' dirt-tracker is an insult in any way shape or form - selection for the All Blacks might be tougher, but that's probably the only selection that is.

This tour, however, the gulf between the two sides seems larger that I remember in years gone by. In the test squad, assuming (not very radically) that my predicted test XV is pretty much the right one - might not be Fitzgerald, but the rest look about right - the players and the combinations have all clicked. Roberts and o'Driscoll in the centres in particular, have never played together but have a partnership that looks like it has been together for years. Martyn Williams is used to linking with Roberts for club and country, Phillips and S. Jones for country and is still, by far, the best fetcher that the Lions have taken with them.

The Kings played a tough game, borderline illegally rough in fact, and knocked the Lions about. Not only Murray and Hook who might not play again on tour having left the field injured, but they largely dominated the tackle and the breakdown with that physical presence. The Lions didn't seem able to react to this, not helped by having no real fetcher - Worsley at open side is still a jammer not a fetcher, Hines is a decent blind side, but he's in the muscular fast-lock, slow-blind-side category (a bit like Chabal) rather than a fetcher. This meant the Lions couldn't really clear the rucks at speed, and didn't, and so the Kings could dominate.

In part because of that the Lions failed to shine. No clean ball made the backs look laboured and slow, and the forwards never supplied fast ball. The cross-field kick became a good option, but O'Gara's precision from hand hasn't quite been there all tour, and wasn't there again today, despite his precision from the tee. Monye's try was, I think, a try - but I wouldn't have been shocked if that decision had gone the other way, and with it the match. Darcy and Flutey don't have the presence of Roberts and O'Driscoll, so the Kings, despite being somewhat limited in attack, had a slow 7, a weak-tackling 10, and small, creative 12 and 13 to run at as they liked. Avoid Powell, outflank Worsley and make metres easily - even if as the defence organises this becomes harder to repeat.

Saturday's run out should look like a very different side, but so will their opponents. Prediction? I still think the Boks are underdone and will struggle against good combinations and game-fit players. Lions to win, by about 10.

Lions v Western Province

Western Province is essentially the Stormers, and a bit like the Cheetahs before them proved a challenge that the Lions eventually rose to overcome.

I'm sure the Lions' management are quite happy though: scrums were better, breakdown was largely better and I suspect in their books, and definitely in mine, the final names were put onto the team sheet.

Sheridan may have had a chance of beating Jenkins out, but after too many dumb penalties at the breakdown, he's blown it. Vickery, on the other hand, has cemented his place on the other side of the breakdown. Williams proved faster and more able at open side, as expected, and linked nicely for both the tries scored early by the Lions. I think Croft, Williams and Heaslip would be my loose forwards, but Worsley, Williams and Powell played really well as a unit and could be the starting trio.

Monye is going to be unlucky, but it's still Fitzgerald and Bowe for me. Byrne was already inked in, but any doubters only need to look at both Kearney's mistakes and the fact he was substituted for Hook before the end of the match to realise it will be Byrne.

Ellis, Hook, probably D. Jones, the Welsh hooker from yesterday, Monye, Shaw and Powell for the replacement's bench.

Lions test side

I don't quite have XV yet, but with Halfpenny and Ferris going home, I have 13 starters. I should point out that O'Connell is in PURELY because Geech has him as tour captain. In my original selection of a touring party I had POC as a starter, now I'm not sure he's that quality any more. In all his games so far he's been rather anonymous as a player and not really showed clear leadership, at least not on TV. I rather have the impression that being Lions captain is inhibiting him, but then I'm not Geech and I'm not there...

But my starters are:

Jenkins
Mears
?

Wyn-Jones
O'Connell

Croft
? (Probably M. Williams but need to see him play)
Heaslip

Phillips
Jones
Fitzgerald
Roberts
O'Driscoll
Bowe
Byrne

If Williams gets the 7 shirt, I wouldn't be stunned to see Powell in the 8 shirt to start - they're used to working together and give you some sense of partnership, and I think Croft would compliment the pair of them, but I think Heaslip is probably a more generally solid 8 than Powell. Ryan Jones needs a mention... but probably not for the first test.

I would probably shift the captaincy to BOD and have the Scottish lock in for POC if I could. This would weaken the line-out for the Lions, but as New Zealand have proven time and again you can beat the Boks in South Africa without a really strong line-out. I think it would strengthen the Lions around the park, and the telling stats these days are not possession any more, but turn overs and penalties. Look at the matches that the All Blacks (and others, but the ABs have been doing it for a few years now) have won with <35% of the possession. When they get the ball, they're clinical and score, the rest of the time they trust their defence to stop the attack, get them turnovers and the like. It's hard to say it doesn't work when they are the #1 ranked team in the world so consistently. Leinster did it to Leicester and Munster in the HC too...

Lions v Sharks

What to say?

The Sharks were gutted, half their team was missing, and it was pretty much have one, skip one, have one, skip one through the side so their combinations were off. Despite that, for the first half, the Sharks tackled their guts out and whilst they never looked good for the win, they looked promising to keep the scores down.

However, the tackling started slip with fatigue, the Lions managed to get some fast ball from the breakdown, and started to score. The 39-3 final result might be thought to be flattering, but given the amount of pressure the Lions exerted it was probably a reasonably fair reflection of the game.

Also of interest was the refereeing of the scrum. It was noticeable in the first half that Kaplan pinged Jenkins every time. In the second half, once he moved around and looked at what was going on, he pinged the Sharks every time instead. I think there was a perception amongst referees that the Lions were cheating, and Kaplan's actions have, hopefully, changed that - he came to realise that the Lions weren't cheating and that will spread through the other officials I think.

Of concern - the breakdown still. The Lions should be praying that Martyn Williams is fit and can get a run on Saturday and see if he can do a better job. I'm not sure if he will, but it will be hard for him to do a worse job.

See next post for a Lions starting group.

Lions v Cheetahs

This was a frustrating match to watch. I watched it with a South African friend who was also frustrated.

The Lions after their performance on Wednesday should have shone, but didn't. Whilst the match was going on there were two obvious problems.

Firstly there was no fetcher - no one like McCaw, Martyn Williams etc. This meant, after the Cheetahs settled in to the game at least, that they could slow the ball down at the contact area most of the time, and force the Lions into giving up penalties. This they duly did, and Hook (who had sparkled with faster ball) fell back into having fewer choices. One level I'm pleased for him, because he showed he can play that kick-the-corners dull, slow game if needed - something that was lacking a year ago, but it did make for a dull game. I'm not going to blame anyone beyond Geech for no fetcher - when Martyn Williams pulled out, Worsely is NOT the ideal replacement. He's a blind-side that can switch to open, but he's not a fetcher. When he's played open-side he's either had an even better blind-side (Betsen) playing, and a fetcher at 8, or a fetcher at 6 instead of 7.

The other thing - where were the offloads? OK, Shane offloaded and gave away an intercept try, but Williams, Hook, and Byrne were the only players looking for the offloads. Earls didn't, Fitzgerald didn't, Halfpenny didn't (but he was fixed out on the wing without players outside him, so less problem there). But it made defending easier because the Cheetahs could just hit the player and know there would be no change to the point of attack - makes the defence pretty easy you'd think, and as it showed. And, to go back to point one, after the tackle, because the Cheetahs knew there wasn't going to be an offload and there was no fetcher they could flood in and slow everything down, and even turn the ball over. If you can't recycle the ball quickly for whatever reason, surely it's not the work of genius to work out you don't give collision areas? Wales won a grand slam doing that after all!