We're half way through the Six Nations. For most of these sides there are 5 matches before the RWC starts in New Zealand. (Hopefully including Christchurch, a city I didn't particularly like but which is suffering massively after a second series of earthquakes and after-shocks in a few months and didn't deserve that.)
The predominant feature so far? The side that makes the fewer mistakes wins. You can, of course, argue that's always the case in a rugby match, but it's not usually the predominant feature of an international series. Take the last Tri-Nations. I think it's probably true that the side that made the fewest errors won, but the predominant feature was the speed of the All-Blacks at the breakdown in both attack and defence and their ability to convert their pressure, speed and fitness into victories. The other feature was a rather lacklustre Bok display, probably not helped by starting off getting hammered in NZ twice and then travelling to Australia and getting beaten there on the back of their Kiwi pain.
But look at today's results. England beat France, but despite Les Bleus making a right pig's ear of just about every scoring opportunity with ball in band, the scores were close because the English kept making mistakes and giving away both scoring and possession opportunities. Italy lost to Wales in part because the Welsh defence proved capable of keeping the Italians from the try-line except when sheer brute power was enough (I'm not sure that's something to be proud of, Italy's backs are not noted for their creativity in rugby), in part because Hook and Shane are world class and flashed together for moments of brilliance, but also because they kept making mistakes - as did their foes.
Two weeks ago France didn't so much win as Ireland conspired to lose by playing badly. That was better than Scotland who conspired to lose by not playing at all. The week before against France Scotland possibly played the most creative rugby of the teams, but conspired with the French not to bother defending. It was a good, high-scoring match because of that, but France were just better and managed to score more points - helped in no small part because all their tries came directly from Scottish mistakes.
So, facing up against Australia, New Zealand, South Africa... if they don't play out of their skins compared to this we might see some massive scores in favour of the South. England, maybe, have the hoodoo over Australia. But so close to home, in a RWC, and with plenty of chances for Robbie Deans to sort out his best front row I'm not so sure. Because if it's fewer errors, the Southern Hemisphere sides will be a class apart.
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