More on France

I caught the last 20 minutes or so of the Top 14 final yesterday. The array of international talent on display was stunning.

Over half of the Toulouse team, and just under half of the Clemont team had played in the Rugby World Cup. Not all of them for France - Kelleher being one obvious example at scrum half for Toulouse, but with a rough count from memory there were about 20 of France's RWC squad in the squads on show at home.

Whilst this made for a high octane (although not massively high scoring) and very competitive match, you've got to think that even though not all of those players would probably make the current team (retirement, form, coach's preference), it's little wonder that France looked rather poor in Australia. In fact, what is amazing is that they managed, apart from 10 minutes or so, to compete against Australia at home. Australia did deserve to win based on what I saw, but if that intercept try hadn't been scored and if France had scored one try with their 5 minutes camped 5m away from the Australia line - both important ifs, but not unlikely ones - 27-20 would probably have been a fair result and pretty achievable. That's a fair degree of testament to the strength in depth of French Rugby.

An interesting quote

"You will never get a bad All Black team. At their worst they will still be the best in the world."

The person making this statement? The coach of the current RWC holders, Peter de Villiers.

I find it fascinating because, living as I do in England we had, despite the clearly different facts on the pitch, fours years of "world champions" and there is still an arrogance that demands England be the #1 side in the world.

The facts suggest that they're not, although they do well in the RWC format. New Zealand, for whatever reason, don't do so well in RWCs but it's pretty likely that for most of the time between RWCs they will be, possibly by some margin, the #1 team in the rankings.

Whilst de Villiers might be talking up the opposition before the match, what he's saying is pretty much the truth as well - and it's so nice to see a side that can claim, legitimately, to be "world champions" not doing anything to rest on their laurels.

Australia 34 -13 France

Well, it just goes to show how sportsmen can make seeming idiots of prognosticators at first sight.

I will admit to having missed the first half, a girl's got to sleep sometimes, and Sky had been lying about where they were broadcasting it, so I taped a load of golf instead of rugby - thanks Sky!

But, really it sounds from the commentary that I didn't miss much, it ended 6-6 and was scrappy as anything.

In the second half really Australia only threatened for about 10 minutes, but they scored a hatful of tries, plus there was an interception try when the French tried to throw the ball about to get back into the match. The Australian scrum stood up OK to the French, but at ruck and maul seemed to get the upper hand most times. Inexperienced back row vs. Waugh and Smith is not a fair contest, and whilst Elsom is not in the same league of experience he was there all the time too.

Robbie Deans will be impressed with his team's defense, there were a couple of periods of concerted pressure, pretty much right on the line, where Australia kept the French at bay. It's hard to be 100% certain of how it might have been different, but I couldn't help but wonder if France, with different forwards and different backs would have played those phases differently and scored some points - but then we'd have had a totally different game. I think, to be honest, what showed was that the forwards didn't really trust the backs, and whilst it's not good form to pick out a single player for making mistakes, there were a couple of potentially good, one great, moves that fell apart with a spilled ball.

Next week - well France are still France and wildly unpredictable. But I think Australia will feel, as a team, that they've got what it takes to stop the French scoring, and that they can score against them. One thing that does need to be said though, Plaisson was the only try scorer for Les Bleus. He's tiny and he went straight through Mortlock in a way that few players ever do. If the French manage to be a bit faster and more precise, they do have the weapons to score.

Australia v France

This will be an odd match I suspect. France are definitely under-strength - loads of the regular giants of French rugby are at home given the top 14 season has still not (quite) finished - semi-finals last weekend, finals this weekend, so no players from Stade Francais, Toulouse etc. That's a LOT of big names absent.

French sides don't always travel well either, although around in Europe France don't seem to mind in most years, but this is hardly a vintage French side and the wheels could just come off.

But, at the same time this is France. Those mavericks that despite a terrible RWC at home, rose to defeat (with a lot of help from the referee and linesmen) the All Blacks. That 4 RWCs ago again rose to beat the All Blacks, convincingly. No matter how weak they appear, we all know they could do it again.

Then there is the scrum. It is a truism of French rugby that they love to scrum - but it's true, and it's almost certainly the foundation of their most sublime backs play - the fact that their forwards tend to mince up and suck in opposing forwards. This may not be the most experienced French pack, but they will still scrummage to a high level. Australia and the scrum... well we all know how suspect that can be, and although Deans may work wonders over the next 3-and-a-bit years, he's not had time to do it yet. France will almost certainly have the upper hand there, possibly enough to let their banks cut loose, and if they gel, they are certainly good enough to slice through just about any defence.

As always with France a real prediction is impossible - it depends on which France turn up. I think it's unlikely the great France will - too young, too far from home, too tired at the end of the season, to little time together will all contribute to that, but there is still that chance. Let's say about 16% that the great France will show and rip Robbie Deans' preparations to shreds - by 20 points or more. The other 84% - Australia to win, although not that convincingly: they will have the upper hand in some places, but their weakness at the scrum will stop them running away as convincingly as they might.

Kia kumite

Oh dear, oh dear.

If Hodgson was pulled for "unacceptable at test level" tackling, why was there a backline left for England? 44-12 to the All Blacks, 5 tries, all but one rather attractively scored and the fifth one still scored by slicing through England's inadequate defensive line like it wasn't there.

The studio guests tried to make a case for England's positives. But, England blew (in one case dropping over the line level of blew) 2 more opportunities for tries and I would still say that the score flatters England. England had moments when they kept the ball, but then gave the game away with stupid penalties and poor handling on a regular basis, especially in the first half. Although they kept the ball in hand a bit better, England looked ponderous in attack, absolutely lacking in pace and inspiration, only scoring from a quick tap penalty for one of their tries and from sustained pressure that finally, after about 500 phases, found a small hole in the AB defence. When you point out that the ABs lost Ali Williams after about 10 minutes and their line out suffered thereafter, and McCaw after about 20 minutes and their turn over rate didn't really suffer thereafter, if sums up the difference in class. When you add the 5 tries to the mix, well, that's it.

The scrums were rock-solid for the ABs including wheeling one and disrupting several so the ball for England was rarely good. The tackling was frankly brutal. You might see a picture of Tait covered in blood on the news - that's from a totally legal, albeit very hard hit, and it really summed up the difference.

The All Blacks do have things to work on - Lauaki had a bit of a tendency to drop the ball, McCaw's injury seemed fairly bad, but there was no news of what happened and he could be back for the Tri-Nations), and as already mentioned without Williams the AB line out suffered - the loss of that primary target meant everyone else suffered a bit more. But, you would have to say that the All Blacks came out of this with many positives and some areas to work on.

Graham Henry pulled a few rabbits, metaphorically speaking, out of the hat. Conrad Smith has real competition for his shirt, Kahui played a blinder - he made that tackle that left Tait bloody and scored a try. Who was Jerry Collins? Thompson had a couple of jittery bits, but otherwise played a blinder, and was only denied a try by a questionable call from the TMO (albeit a very hard call in fairness).

England came out of it with a shattered look and I bet they're pleased they're leaving tomorrow, I bet some wish they were leaving tonight to be spared the press in the morning. You have to wonder what Johnson can do. Where can he go? England's ultra-defensive line-up were shredded. Their youth have been demoralised and outplayed, their old hands rarely held those hands up.

There was great skill shown - but only by one side. Worryingly for the rest of the world, Carter looked like a star, but he didn't shine alone. 10, 12, 13, 14, 15 all looked wonderful, and 11 didn't do a bad job either, he just got used less so didn't shine, but he looked good enough. The pack away from the line outs all looked great too, and outplayed their opposites. Poor Ellis is the only person not to get a mention for looking great. He, like, 11, played a thoroughly sound game, he chivied forwards, fed backs as required, and never looked in trouble. He didn't really need to spark the world alight because everyone around him was doing that today.

McCaw and naughty England, SA v Italy, Second Test etc.

I appreciate that the players have a close up view of what goes on in rucks, mauls and scrums that we don't get - and that the referees don't get too. But you do have to wonder sometimes - Northern Hemisphere sides, particularly England, have been moaning that Richie McCaw cheats all the time for the last 7 years or so. Do they honestly believe he mesmerises the referee so he can get away with stuff that they can't?

I will concede that referees can have bad games, but bad games every time they referee McCaw throughout his first class and international career? Please, do me a favour, assume I can think. Although I have a story about wingeing Aussies that would destroy the wingeing Poms stereotype forever, you do have to think this is what's going on in this case. McCaw didn't have it all his own way last weekend, but still the management and now the players are saying "He's such a cheat." Yes, again. What crap.

Whilst we're at it, I'm not sure that the big penalty that was given against him, that had Barnes baying for a yellow card, was correct. I'm not an expert in the laws, so I could be wrong, but he was done for offside. However, he was a tackler - he'd clearly been involved in the tackle, gone to ground as had the player he tackled. There was a second AB in the tackle, but that doesn't matter. A ruck hadn't formed (a ruck requires additional players from both sides make contact over the ball) and as the tackler he is entitled to play the ball from wherever he likes. Perhaps I've got the laws wrong, perhaps I didn't see clearly, but oh well. Over on SA referees someone else asked the question - and Jonathan Kaplan thought McCaw might have had a point too (last question). I'd like to say that although I think the decision was wrong, that's not to say I thought Owen had a bad game overall. He rarely makes mistakes, he certainly plays what he sees (right or wrong, can you ask for more?) and although I think he did make a mistake this time, we're all entitled to, every now and again.



In the meantime, it appears 4 England players are "helping the police with their enquiries" about a major incident in their hotel in Auckland. Oops! Pot, kettle... bending the laws on the field of play one thing, bending the laws of the land - oh dear.

Second test prediction - Despite several changes to the AB line-up and the introduction of a surprising amount of "fresh blood" NZ to win comfortably. Not as comfortably as if they'd gone in with the same side, but England are certainly weakened by the loss of Sheridan, their offence is weakened by the loss of Hodgson, and although their mid-field defence is strengthened, NZ can and will attack from enough different places and different angles that it won't really matter.

Poor Italy... Italy don't, generally, travel well - look at their Six Nations results. South Africa are currently making a better fist of defending the RWC-holders tag than England ever did, and have fielded a strong looking side. South Africa at home are always a challenge, and this will be a challenge too far, probably much too far, for Italy. This could easily be a 50+ point margin of victory, and it could be a 70+ point margin. South Africa will score, and their line won't be threatened unless Italy have found a better number 10 (or the 6N incumbent has improved his skills markedly).

SA v Wales

Really all the news on this is about Wales.

Wales, I thought, were well beaten but not disastrous last week. This week, the scoreline really flattered SA (a try as the last move of the match helped there). Don't get me wrong, SA deserved to win - but 30-21 would have been a fairer score than 37-21 was.

Wales were much, much better. The tackled better, they looked to attack better, they handled better. They deserved the times that they were in the lead - patches either side of half-time. Gatland and Edwards must be feeling much happier, as must Welsh Rugby (or Rugbi Cymraeg if you prefer). Losing to the #1 team in the world and current world cup holders when they're at home isn't a disaster. Some of those amazing All Black teams - the 2005 squad that stuffed the Lions and everyone else, lost in SA that year if memory serves - it can be that hard.

The other thing to ask is quite simple: Is Shane Williams the best winger in the world on current form? There are certainly many contenders for that crown - Sivivatu is the one we're not going to see Williams up against at the moment, but in this year Williams has outplayed all the big Northern Hemisphere wingers, he's just left Bryan Habana looking ordinary, and he's scored one of the most amazing tries you'll ever see. The first jink around a tackle, well any international winger that doesn't think he can just run through the cover defence would have got around that. But Williams then ran down into the corner, where there were no less than 4 SA defenders, some coming forward, some across. A couple of quick steps and Shane was over the line and dotting the ball down before they laid a finger on him. It sounds implausible if not impossible, but he really did take a couple of quick steps and turn all four of them inside out at once.

I haven't really watched Ireland get beat by Australia yet, although I've seen a few clips - Australia really have problems in the scrum, but they also have a belief in themselves and their new coach that will see them improve I'm sure. I just suspect that this year they'll get too pushed around by both the All Black and Bokke packs and not do so well in the Tri-Nations. Ireland must be spitting, and going home after a poor tour. England have started moderately badly, and seem to have lost confidence in the only recognised #10 they've taken with them. Oops. If they can play for the whole 80 minutes as they played for the first 20 this morning they might do well, but you have to think that the All Blacks will know what the pace is and cope better next week. England could face a real drubbing, and against a side that is full of talent but is very new together too. If that happens, Wales might be the only side coming home feeling like they've had a reasonable tour - a tour in which, although they lost, they've blooded some new talent, they've rediscovered their pride in the jersey and they've demonstrated they really do have the best winger in the world.