The actual Lions - how did I do and thoughts?

Props 2/4 - 2 more Wasps than I'd have taken! They're taking 5, but I was picking a smaller squad remember, so here and on down, I'm marking my inclusions in the squad.
Hookers 2/2 - I guess I'm surprised Rees is the 3rd hooker: Wales's line out wasn't great and that's not always the hooker, but I think it was this year, mostly.
Locks 3/4 - Shaw of Wasps over Gough.
Back row 5/6 - first real shock here, no Ryan Jones!
Half-back and centres, 8/8! - Fitzgerald in the actual squad a bit of a shocker, I think he was rather anonymous throughout the 6N.
Wings 2.5/4 - Although I mentioned Halfpenny I went against him in the end. WTF did Monye come from?
FB 1/2 - I went for Armitage who doesn't even make the squad, over Kearney, who really struggled against a big aggressive back line (Wales for example) and the Bok backs will be small and timid won't they?!

Overall: 23.5/30. 78% - pretty good really. 4 more Wasps than I'd have picked if memory serves!

Lions predictions

I should say, before I dive into this, that what I'm doing is picking essentially an A and a B squad - 2 full teams and so 30 players. I suspect the Lions squad will be bigger and have a different balance - more forwards than backs. In most places there will just be a group of players, e.g. four centres, but sometimes there will be indications of starting players and sometimes discussion of who's not there or more than one for the remaining spot. That will be where I think the choice of the player depends on the way they want to play, and Iain McGeechan is a far better coach than me!

Props:
G. Jenkins (starter)
A. Jones
D. Jones
Here the mix becomes awkward, but I'd probably take Julian White. Sheridan will be too easy for the Boks to counter, Ireland's scrum creaked too much up front. I don't remember the Scottish props which isn't a good sign!

Hookers:
Mears
Flannery

Locks:
Paul O'Connell (starter, possibly captain)
Alan Wyn Jones (starter)
Gough, Shaw, Donacha O'Callaghan are fighting for the other two places. Probably (just) Gough and DOC - Shaw doesn't offer enough extras around the pitch, and DOC and POC have a good working relationship.

Back Rows:
The Welsh and Irish 6 Nations back rows please!
Martyn Williams is the only starter from this lot.
Powell is probably an impact sub.
Possible surprises in here: Worsely might get a shout, although he's rather too similar to the Bok loose forwards to challenge them. Stephan Armitage might just get a look in - he offers something rather different.


Scrum Half:
Phillips
Leamy

Danny Care was close, but that stupid yellow card counts against him - scrum halves are too important to do that.

Fly Half:
S. Jones (starter)
Ronan O'Gara
Hook, Flood and Cipriani all miss out here, two for not enough international time, one for not being good enough. This could be a "surprise" area - if the coaches decide not to confront the Matfield-Botha axis in the line out ROG might miss out and Cipriani (who plays for Geech at Wasps after all) sneak in, although I rate both Flood and Hook ahead of him. Nicky Robinson as a real outside shout - not in the Wales mix, but running Cardiff Blues nicely in the EDF final and HEC quarter final.

Centres:
BOD (starter and MY choice for captain)
Shanklin
Roberts (Roberts really gets in on the mix and partnership with Shanklin, plus a good EDF final)
Then there's a few in mix: Flutey, but I'm not sure about his defence if the pack struggles, Horan, Tindall at a stretch. Flutey on the Wasps ticket just.

Wings:
S. Williams (starts)
Bowe (starts)
T. Evans
The fourth wing spot is between Halfpenny (also a good EDF Final), Ojo and maybe Sackey. Probably Ojo.

Ful-back:
Byrne (starter, outside shout as captain)
D. Armitage.

Breakdown by nation:

England: 5
Ireland: 10
Scotland: 1
Wales: 14

No surprise there's a lot of Irish players.

Even I'm rather surprised at the predominance of Welsh players - but Wales played essentially a second squad against Italy and played France at their brilliant best, and could have denied Ireland the Grand Slam with the last kick. England were gifted 21 points against Italy and played France at their absolute worst. Points difference tells lies sometimes in a short season! Wales finished fourth, but the depth of the squad and that narrow loss suggests they're better than they look. Simultaneously, although winning the slam is a great achievement, Ireland didn't really do it as a team, they had a few players really shine at the right moments - all of who have been picked - but the rest of their side looked like supporting actors for the stars.

That might just be justifying my pro-Welsh bias, but I don't think so.

Team of the 6N

Unlike last year, when winning the grand slam gave me an almost all Welsh team of the competition, this year there's more of a mixture. That is, in part, because most of the teams chopped and changed a number of players and there's a bit of a bias to those that impressed against everyone. It is also because Ireland had bits that worked really well - line out, BOD - and players that really didn't click - ROG - and a few where their players were good but others were better overall.

Like last time, I'll do this in chunks.

Fullback - Lee Byrne, absolutely no doubt. He made about 2 mistakes all tournament, ran gorgeous attacking lines, caught every ball and kicked sensibly as well as running back bad kicks.

Wings - This is a harder call. Williams was expected to be a wizard and at times was, but he wasn't the same twinkling feet as last week. Médard, Malzieu and Heymans all deserve a mention, except for that debacle against England. Tommy Bowe outplayed Williams on the day, but didn't really shine throughout. Halfpenny had a storming start, but then didn't get picked for the last two games. Sackey looked good in an England side when it didn't fire, but seemed to become anonymous the rest of the time. Malzieu and Williams, get the nod, just.

Centres - BOD is as nailed in as Byrne in the 15 shirt. Shanklin, Flutey, Roberts, and maybe if Byrne hadn't limped off Henson are the contenders for the other shirt. Henson looked wonderful but only played 90 minutes in the centres. Ireland and France changed too much. Flutey looked better as the rest of the side got better, which makes me wonder how he would do in a tough game. Shanklin played more minutes, Roberts played in 12... but I think Shanklin just edges it.

Half backs - Stephen Jones is nailed on in 10. ROG was too inconsistent and he's too shaky to defend his channel well. No one else controlled the games well enough or played enough to get a look in. At 9 O'Leary was good, but not quite there. Phillips was solid and played throughout. England's scrum halves were largely anonymous except for yellow cards. Mike Blair seems to be a commentator's favourite, but didn't shine to my mind. Stringer probably looked the best, but played off the bench. Phillips I think just edges it - for his partnership with Jones and because he's often an 80 minute player which is rare at 9 these days.

Back row - Parese of course. Dusautoir of course. Martyn Williams of course. Powell, Worsley, Ryan Jones are all unlucky here, but those three shone throughout.

Second Row - Paul O'Connell is a shoe-in here. Ireland's line out never faltered and attacked the others, and it's most due to POC. DOC was looking good for the role until he got a yellow card and couldn't keep his mind on the job under pressure. Up, to my mind, steps Wyn Jones who was close against POC several times, good the rest of the time and adds ball carrying to the mix. The other line outs tended to stutter, scrums didn't dominate and ball carrying was dull by and large.

Props - tough call here. No side was consistently dominant at the scrum, but Italy, Wales' first choice and England all get a shout here. Gethin Jenkins never looked flustered and made some spectacular tackles above the call of duty, so he gets one slot. I think Califano just gets the other slot. White and Jones to the bench.

Hooker - Really has to be Flannery for his throwing at the lineout and his partnership with POC. Mears is unlucky - his throwing was good, his hooking was good and around the park he's better than Flannery but that relationship with POC just edges Flannery in. Mears on the bench could be devestating in the last 20-30 minutes.

Wales 15 - 17 Ireland

Congratulations to Ireland on their second grand slam ever. And despite finishing fourth, congratulations to Wales for producing, with the exception of the Italy game and in my opinion, the best games of a rather turgid 6N.

This game was in many ways the culmination of a bad spring. There was tension, there was willingness to try and attack from both sides (something England until last week, Scotland and Italy, and Ireland for most weeks) seemed to lack. There was ferocious, committed and mostly very successful defence. There was passion (possibly too much in a few players), and it all came down to the very last kick of the game. If Stephen Jones had kicked it 5m further, Ireland wouldn't be celebrating in the same way tonight.

The Irish "golden generation" has finally delivered as well.

If you look at the stats one thing that will leap out is handling errors. If you haven't watched the match as well, you'd think it was a really scrappy game. But, if we steal a stat from tennis with forced and unforced errors, the unforced error count was really low - about 2 on each side, everything else was caused by the weight of the tackle, tackles that hit the ball and so on.

Ireland, again, had an inspired 10 minutes after the break, in which they scored 2 tries and laid the foundation for their win. Wales chipped away with penalties and a drop goal - leading 6-0 at half time, and pulling back to 15-14 in front until ROG found a drop goal, and then Jones missed that last kick.

The game wasn't a classic in the sense of making a memorable match that I'd want to watch again and again, but was still gripping and by far the best of the bunch this year.

France v Italy, Scotland v England

What on earth happened to France last week? Two matches ago they beat Wales who had been looking fairly imperious. This week they stuffed Italy and 50-8, Italy's worst ever 6N result, is a stuffing. Last week they weren't there.

There's not much to say really past that scoreline. France played sublimely, as you might imagine they would have to rack up that sort of a score. Several of the "villains" of the piece last week - particularly Chabal - shone this week. Chabal is a decent 4, 5 or 8, but he's a muscular 8 rather than a speedy one, and he's just not fast enough to be an international 7. A bit like Bergamasco at 9 was the coach's fault, you would have to say that Liévremont must bear some of the blame for playing Chabal in a position that doesn't suit him.

Parese, for the first time really, looked pretty ordinary. He's still consistently the best number 8 in the contest, possibly in the world, but carrying the team against France in this mood was too much even for him. He was, by far, Italy's best player still, but still looked mortal for the first time in several years.

As for England v Scotland - Scotland's inability to score tries showed: at various points they created chances and managed to find ways not to convert them. It could have put them in front with 10 minutes to go and who knows what would have happened then? England's "green shoots" that I talked about last week are a bit stronger than I thought last time, and I'm sure in public they'll be talked up BUT...

In the second half, England seemed to forget what they'd done in the first half. Sometimes, of course, that's desirable when you want to totally change the plays that aren't working, but when you've got a plan that has you 15 points ahead and looking comfortable you don't throw those plans out do you? You might tweak the odd bit, but England seemed to tweak everything. This led them to reverting to aimless kicking, bad running lines and the like. If England are going to rise back up the IRB rankings and seriously compete next year in the 6N and in 2011 in New Zealand they're going to have to root that bit out of their game. New Zealand, Australia, South Africa, Wales, and even Ireland and France on a decent day will be close enough after England's good spell to exploit the bad spell and win the games that matter.

England smash France in first half

All the old clichés need to come out for this match - it was a game a two halves, the better side won, there's an element of "you only play as well as your opposition let you" as well.

In the first half France were as bad as in the match two weeks ago against Wales they were inspired. They showed the flair and talent of a bunch of teenagers seeing a rugby ball for the first time, and that let England play well. In fairness to England they played better than I've seen in a while, there were good running lines, some decent support, slick passing and the like, and whilst some of that is because France just let them, some is due to England improving.

However, those green shoots of recovery are fragile, as the second half showed. If you go in 29-0 up, then in the second half you'd expect a romp to develop, at least up to 40+ points, probably 50+ points. But, France turned around and won the second half 10-5. They started to win the contact areas, they started winning on the penalty count (and it's notable that there was only one side warned about yellow cards, even though none were awarded - and that side was England). England went back to providing slow ball and having mostly clueless looking backs.

France won't be this bad for a long time again. England might build from this and move forward once more. But Frank Hadden won't be shaking in his shoes after the second half. He can turn around, point to the second half and say to his players "If you play to your potential you can do this to England, if you play down to their level, you can lose like that..."

Wales and Ireland on collision course

Wales won in Italy, no surprise with the result, but they didn't look at all good. Ireland won in Scotland, which also really doesn't surprise me, but it was a close call, probably closer than anyone expected.

The reasons for these "not being good" were different I think.

With Wales there were two things. In particular 5 changes in the pack, mostly in the tight, disrupted the scrum, and to some extent the speed of ball from the ruck too. That pretty much stopped Wales getting quality ball most of the time, and that dragged the game down into the mire.

But, in addition, I think that all-important balance was missing too often. Hook and Powell in particular should be identified here. Don't get me wrong, they are both seriously high quality players. But, for both of them, they have a wide standard deviation - they have moments of sheer, dazzling brilliance, but they have moments of mediocrity too. One player like that in that 8, 9, 10 axis is OK, probably desirable even. Two players like that, there are too many ways things can go wrong and throw the rest of the team off, and that certainly contributed to the poor performance.

Ireland, on the other hand, looked like they choked. I think Declan Kidney is lucky that his side went in down by a few points - Scotland really should have been further ahead - but also he could turn around and say "If you carry on playing like this, you'll be another Irish side that isn't good enough to be the second Grand Slam winners" and then let his players go out and know that they had to perform to win the game, whilst knowing at the same time they were close enough to manage it.

And, of course, if England lose tomorrow, France aren't out of it either. If Wales win next week, which is certainly possible, they need to win by 13 points to beat Ireland on points difference: that's doable if not necessarily likely on today's performance. But, if France stuff Italy (certainly possible too) they could well be ahead at the end of the weekend. Fun, fun, fun.