More on ELVs

Well, I've not really closely watched the two games (Chiefs v Blues, 'Tahs v 'Canes) that have been broadcast so far today, but I've seen some highlights and some parts of both matches.

It's worth pointing out that in both games one side (Chiefs and 'Canes) didn't really show up for some reason (although in the first half of the 'Tahs match which I did watch properly) Jerry Collins certainly showed up. That makes it a bit tricky to be sure, but we're still seeing a situation where there were far fewer penalties than you'd expect - more free kicks awarded, and the free kicks close to the opponents try line sometimes taken as free kicks, sometimes as scrums. This appears to be making the score-lines more one sided - consider the Wales v Scotland match where the underdogs scored all 15 points via penalties. I think only two of those offences would have been penalties under the ELVs and Scotland would have only scored 6 points. Wales might only have scored 21 mind... but I think 24 actually.

It was noticeable in bits I have watched that the teams in these matches seemed more willing to use kicks to touch: the phobia in yesterday's match seems to have been restricted to them. There were still a few times where the "passed back inside" rule meant a kick was kept in bounds rather than kicked out, probably 5-10 per match, and so 5-10 fewer line outs (it will be interesting to see the comparative stats) but although the space makes for more attacking rugby, the reduction in line-outs is (again in my rough opinion, without numbers to support it) is countered by the increase in scrums, so all the forwards are still involved, although possibly their skill set and training will change as the laws become better embedded: giant locks that can't push will move out in favour of locks that can be shorter and scrum well and carry well.

Who will benefit? Well, France and New Zealand would be the obvious two countries at the moment. Space for their backs and the loose forwards to do more - could be just what they need. Wales will probably do well, and so will Argentina: increasing the emphasis on the scrum for the Pumas, and the space and handling skills for the Dragons. Ireland with the O'Driscol of two years ago, yes, this year and next? Less sure. Italy, Scotland and England? Not so good for various reasons. All of them because it will emphasise creativity, England in addition because Johnny will become less important - fewer chances to kick at goal.