A Triple Crown for Wales

Well, part one of my prediction for the weekend has come to pass. Wales beat Ireland, and it was quite close.

Actually, although the scoreline was close, after the first 20 minutes when it looked like it was all Ireland I was never really in doubt of the result. If Stephen Jones had made all his kicks, which to be honest he should have done, there would have been a 10 point margin of victory. Wales also blew a couple of decent scoring opportunities, although sometimes you have to wonder if that's really blowing a chance or a good, or lucky, Irish defense.

Apart from being elated, of course, there were two interesting things that came out of the match.

Rugby is often described as a game in which the team that best takes their chances wins. Ireland kicked 4 of 4 penalty attempts (and passed on a couple), and blew one try (that one was definitely excellent defense by Phillips). Wales missed 2 from 6 penalty attempts, and 2 or 3 try scoring opportunities. In any way I'd count it, you would think Ireland took their chances better, statistically speaking (scored on 4 of 5 attempts cf. scored on 5(or 6 with conversion) of 10(or 11). The old truism forgets the important fact that, whilst you can win on fewer attempts if you score them all, if you make twice as many opportunities and score enough of them, you can still win. I don't think any moderately fair Irish person would say Ireland deserved to win on the day.

The other thing that came out was just how much rugby is a team game. Wales looked dominant because at 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15 they were better. The tight five also played well, but I would say that was pretty much honours even. Jones v O'Gara was a harder call - I think O'Gara played better at times, and Jones at other times. The Hook & Jones combination was certainly better than ROG though. Whilst ROG's kicking was often excellent, it very oddly lacked nous, acumen and intelligence far too often. Both Jones and Hook kicked more consistently. At their best they weren't at good as that magnificent first half kick to touch for example, or any of the other really good kicks. However, their worst wasn't much worse than their best, and was better than ROG's average because some of his kicks were appalling. Even though the Welsh 7 and 9 got sin-binned, they still out-played their opposite number, head and shoulders in both cases.

It is also ironic that two teams with bad line-outs throughout the championship met for this decider. Was there a line-out lost to the other side? They weren't all 100% solid of course, but they never are, even for the best sides. Was the fact that they were both not that great the decider here, or have they both worked on line-outs and managed to improve that much?

Mention must, sadly, go to Wayne Barnes again. I'm not sure whether or not the sin-binning of Phillips was the right call. It was certainly stupid by Phillips, and in other circumstances potentially very dangerous, but like there are high-tackles that deserve penalites and high-tackles that deserve sin-bins and even red cards, I don't see why the same isn't true of a knee to the back. Now, Barnes took his touch judge's recommendation there, but in the second half an Irish front row replacement drove into the entirely unprotected back of the Welsh No. 8. The guy Phillips kneed was holding onto the ball and preventing a quick penalty. It doesn't mean he was right to do it, but there were mitigating circumstances. The Irish hit didn't even have that. Why, oh why wasn't that hit also a yellow card pray? It was certainly dangerous, possibly more so, and had no mitigating circumstances at all. Where was the consistency Mr. Referee?

Still, it's all done and dusted (unless the citing commissioner gets involved). Wales are the triple crown winners 2008. Cymru am byth!