Let's be honest - being hammered this weekend is well on the cards. New Zealand have a tighter defence and a better attack than South Africa, and England don't have obvious alternatives in most of the positions where they most need them (12 and 13 being a possible exceptions in the short term, and maybe the injury to Flutey will help make that decision).
If New Zealand do the business and win their grand slam (it is possible England will win, but I'd put my money on a hammering thanks, the bookies are giving unattractive odds (6/4 on England not scoring a try, and 10/1 on them not scoring a single point!) then that's too early, really, for the sharks to go into a feeding frenzy.
However, how about come March? Where do England have to finish to assuage the sharks? On this month's performances England will lose to Wales, France and probably Ireland. They stand a decent chance of losing to Scotland too. Could they lose to Italy? Yes, actually. I don't think they will, but they really could. Is 4th in the 6N enough to save Jonno? Is 5th enough to see him pushed? Last would almost certainly be enough to see him pushed or jump.
One thing that those who start this frenzy will have to consider is who will replace him? Jake White is a possible candidate, but there aren't many others out there. Then you have to wonder who would do better with the available tools. England were playing with inexperienced (at test level) players from 6-15. One of South Africa's not particular senior players came on as a replacement and had more caps on his own than ALL of England's back line. That makes it hard to judge what's going on and who is to blame. Yes, it's easy to say that Cipriani is as fault for the charge-downs, but he's getting service from a scrum-half that isn't used to the pace, and his outlet, whilst a club colleague and so there's some understanding there, is also new to the international stage. That puts extra pressure on the player.
The back-line has talent, but little or no chance of firing against the experienced, powerful, and well organised defences they've faced recently, nor against the better ones they'll face in the spring.
The tight-five should work better, they've got more experience, but they seem to have a model to play to - pods and standing shallow. A few of them have good running skills and good passing skills, but mostly they trundle and slow things down. Australia was defending rucks they couldn't win with one player to England's four (thanks to the pods) giving them three extra defenders, and they were STILL slowing the ball down. When you're playing sides that can think on their feet, where the forwards run good lines, can offload and pass (and that's all of them, or almost all of them) you're going to struggle.
English rugby might think they deserve to be the best in the world - but in the grand scheme of things English rugby just isn't good enough. It plays to a model that was tired in 2003 and has been swept aside in 2008. The defences and the attacks cope with England's style of play and chew it up and spit it out. Until England change and learn rather than look back at past glories, they're stuffed. If Jonno can't deliver that, and perhaps here his icon and RWC winner image is a hinderance, England either need someone that can, or to fall into mediocrity as, as a proud Welsh person, I think they should.
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