Final weekend of November internationals

What have we really learnt?

Well, South Africa were very tired. This tour plus the Lions plus the Six Nations was too much for them. Their match against Ireland was niggly and nasty on both sides and Ireland had to play to win, but the Boks didn't really want to play so much as scrap. Nevertheless it will worry their faithful - the aura of the world champions is well and truly gone. You would think that, after a good summer on the beaches they will do better next year but.... there's just that doubt that the mix isn't quite right, that Smit is reaching the end of his career, that maybe Matfield and Botha are too.

The fans of PdV will doubtless not believe a word of it but a little bit of me wonders if he's starting to have enough influence to disrupt that "Do it for Smit" feeling that has pervaded the Boks for 4 years now and that Jake White harnesses and used to the benefit of both of them. Sadly for SA "do it for de Villiers" doesn't seem to work.

New Zealand have stuttered and spluttered most of the year. They suddenly kicked into gear against France, against a willing France too, and proved that they're worst their number 1 ranking. Although I have yet to see the game, it sounds like they suddenly clicked and produced that wonderful rugby that they can so often. All of their fans will be happy to see that the cobwebs have gone.

Australia... it's a bit harder to say. I think they suffered from the fact that the gulf between them and NZ and SA seemed huge during the Tri-Nations. But they had a better result against Ireland than the Boks and a bigger win against Wales today too. I think they're improving. There is enough belief in Deans and enough people trying to play the way he wants that they're starting to look like a cohesive side again. Everything clicked for them yesterday, and every side has that capacity you hope, but it will give them something to build on for next year too.

Wales... Wales seem to have gone backwards during the series. However, a part of me considers this might be unfair on further reflection. They do still, seriously, need to work out how to take the chances that they make. But yesterday, losing Halfpenny and Williams within 20 minutes, and with Hook at 15 instead of Byrne they certainly lacked that cutting edge and those players to exploit the chances and line breaks that they still made. That isn't really a criticism of Hook - he's not a full back and he actually had 3 very good and 1 acceptable match playing out of position. Technically he was sound, even today. His problem is that he just doesn't have the speed that you need in an international full back. That means he can't always get into position in time and he can't be that cutting, incisive extra attacker either. If you watch him play at 10 and 12, he's a jinking, creative play-maker, not a slashing speed merchant. Great full backs add that slashing attack too.

Ireland still look like they might be the form side of the Northern Hemisphere. Sexton looks like the real thing as a replacement for ROG, and about time too. You have to wonder just how long the rest of the "O" generation can keep going - BOD, POC, DOC etc. But as long as they do, Ireland will be a force to be reckoned with. You have to wonder, well I do, how good the replacements are. Sexton looks good, but can they find a replacement for BOD?

Scotland - I've seen less of the Scotland matches to be honest. They have proven that, on their day, they can mix it with the big boys. Then they come crashing down to earth again against Argentina. I know Argentina are higher in the world rankings, but they've really suffered from injuries and a very inexperienced back line and Scotland still lost. Oops.

France have sounded good, and were certainly up for the match against the All Blacks from all I've read. Is it a disaster? No. But sometime soon Lievremont has to start moving towards a solid first choice 22 for the next RWC you have to think.

Argentina... hard to say. They've blooded a load of new backs. They have seemingly grown into it and that's got to be good for the future of the side and the RWC and the Four Nations when that takes off.

England... oh dear. England look as likely to score as... well Scotland did a couple of years ago. They have the creativity of a bunch of snails. They have the imagination of a bunch of crushed snails. They can defend, sure, and that can make them look less embarrassed on the scoreline than they were this time last year but it doesn't really show progress as a rugby team, it shows that the players don't want to be embarrassed and booed off the park.

I think, for the 6N, Ireland are the side to beat. France and Wales will be in the mix. Then Scotland and England and finally Italy. In a different year, Italy might not be destined for the wooden spoon but they've just lost Parese and that's a big blow. Of course in 5 games each the odd result - the Scotland beating Australia - can make a big difference. But all of Ireland, Wales and France can defend and attack - they can not only strive not to lose, they can attack too. Scotland and England still lack that incision - and without it will rely on the weather and the prayed for inability of their opponents to finish off any chances to win. They might get lucky, but not that lucky.