Friday, September 16, 2011

The first week of the RWC

This week has been too hectic to allow for a review of each match, in fact, I haven't managed to watch more than highlights of some.

The best match, despite the result, of week 1 was SA v Wales. Wales played really well, and South Africa were lucky to win. In fairness, though, South Africa v Wales was, to both me and a die-hard Boks fan I know too close to call for the first time in a while. The wheels could fall off the Welsh wagon - they seem rather lacking in depth in too many positions to cope with injuries for example - but their first 15 are genuinely world-quality players, with certainly Warburton challenging to be recognised as the best open side in the world. I don't think he's there yet, but in a year or two, I think he'll take the crown - stealing it from McCaw's hands, and nudging aside Pocock and Brussow in the process.

The other thing to take away has been the improvement of the so-called minnows. Japan scared France. Scotland were lucky against Romania, Ireland did outclass USA - but it was a match rather than a demolition. On Wednesday Canada thoroughly deserved to beat Tonga - maybe not a huge upset, but a result that 4 years ago would have been unthinkable. The IRB deserves a lot of credit for this. They have been putting money, facilities and training opportunities into improving the game for the Tier 2 nations, and more widely. We're seeing the results of that. In some way rugby is a hard game to do that with... if one side is just 1% better than the other at every position you can get some very one-sided results, even at the highest level. In football, for example, if you're within 5% at every position, winning, or drawing is plausible, but not really in rugby. But that gulf in the Tier 2 nations is down from 5-10% to 2-5% , and maybe this year, more likely in 4 years time if the improvements continue, the weaker top tier sides will lose - at least one of them.

It would be nice to see changes to make the gap narrow even more. In the Southern Hemisphere it's a bit harder, but perhaps inviting a NZ Maori side into the Pacific Nations Cup would make sense to get exposure to the toughest competition. In the Norther Hemisphere there is already an understrength Shadow Six Nations (A-teams from the countries that field them). Making that up to 6 nations by inviting the better teams in tier 2 to replace the major nations that don't field an A-team should make sense to all of them - and a competition for the second tier nations in the November test window would let you determine the top teams and give them more match practise. There must be other ways to do this too, but they are at least moving the right way.

The spectacle and the matches are doing their normal thing. We've had grinding matches, we've finally had a blow-out, but interest is high, at least chez moi.

Will Canada follow up their good performance against Tonga to deliver against an unpredictable and unsettled France? Will Ireland suddenly shake off their cobwebs and remember why they're called the Golden Generation? Or will they be remembered as the generation that hung on for a year or two too long? Will Samoa repeat their heroics of a few weeks ago when they beat Australia in Australia, and repeat Welsh heartache?

I wouldn't put money on any of those results to be honest. In fact if I were a betting sort of girl, I might put money on Australia to beat the spread, I'm so underwhelmed by Ireland. But three matches from six well worth watching for that risk of significant upset should make for a good weekend.

No comments: