Sunday, October 2, 2011

Teams of the pool stages

Usually when I do this sort of thing, I pick a 15 man squad. This time I won't be doing that, because with 600+ players, most of who have played a bit in one match or another and largely not against each other, it would be a mammoth task.

In addition, you have to wonder, or I do, in how many positions I wouldn't be choosing an All-Black. There is competition at some places - perhaps most surprisingly 7 - but they are the #1 side in the world, playing at home and playing like #1. How the loss of Dan Carter will affect that, we will have to see.

What I am going to do, instead, is pick out two sides that have particularly impressed me, one from those going (or gone) home, one from those going forward into the later stages.

The team from those going home that has most impressed me is Russia. Russia are new to rugby, new to the RWC, and yes, they lost all 4 of their matches. They were comfortably beaten by Ireland, Italy and Australia - but they weren't totally blown away by any of them (unlike say Namibia) and they looked aware of how to play and not overawed in all their matches. Sides like Canada, USA etc. looked more composed but performed to expectations, Russia performed better in all their matches than I think anyone expected. Italy and Scotland, both going home, somewhat disappointed. Scotland lost two matches they could (and in one case would, with better officiating) have won but for about 1 minute of madness in total. For Italy, perhaps losing to Ireland and Australia was expected, but except against Australia, Ireland have looked out of sorts but wound up comfortably beating the Azuri, and stuff their much vaunted scrum.

Of those staying a week or more longer, Wales is, by the same criteria, my most impressive team. The All-Blacks looked good against France and I was inclined to think that was because they played well rather than France playing badly - but then came Tonga. Ireland produced only one really good performance. England have looked flat and lucky against both Argentina and Scotland. France... well Tonga. Australia - well Ireland and their next match: Cooper in particular looks out of sorts. Argentina have looked solid, but are only going forwards thanks to Barnes and co, not their talents. It's particularly hard to imagine them performing well in their side of the draw. South Africa have looked largely OK but have some serious issues - particularly at hooker. They've grown into the tournament though.

Wales though - were unlucky against South Africa, a team ranked a long way above them, and probably deserved a win (as well as actually scoring enough points for it although all the officials missed a penalty goal being scored). They've looked sharp and ruthless against Samoa and Fiji, both bogey sides, and kept their concentration against Namibia. Wales are certainly side that can look sharp when they're a little lucky, but they've looked sharp and good rather than sharp and lucky, even against South Africa they looked sharp and good when unlucky. There's no guarantee that they will go through Ireland, but they certainly have a good chance in what must be one of the hardest quarter-finals to call for all the right reasons.

My predictions:

New Zealand v South Africa for one semi. New Zealand to dispatch Argentina brutally, even without Carter. South Africa to choke the life out of Australia as Ireland did.

England v Wales for the other. France can always produce a performance and are hurting, but I think England will grind it out of them in a dull match. Wales to defend against Ireland doggedly and not take all their chances but make and take enough to get through.

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