TMO decisions

There is little doubt that the TMO and getting decisions right more often is a blessing most of the time.

Wayne Barnes, for all I don't like his letter of the law above the flow and spirit of the game, demonstrated pretty well just how to use the TMO. He had possible infringements checked on fly and played on when they were OK.

That said, I wouldn't mind him going back and having them checked at the next break-down, or explaining - the crowd and viewers at home deserve to know questionable moments have been checked and reviewed as much as the players do. But a quick 10s "We looked at a possible high tackle back there and there's nothing in it," with maybe the best replay should suffice.

Then we had the England v Fiji game.

Jaco Peyper is NOT a bad referee. But, in all honesty he should never have awarded the try to the Fiji scrum-half. There were no officials near and the decision should have been "lets check, we couldn't see" and no one could have objected. A quick check, no try, no criticism. Once he has made the decision to award the try, (or to deny it) that decision should stand even if he sees a replay that shows he made a mistake as clearly as he did. Joubert did the same too (although that was the TMO's fault for not checking the whole of the try-scoring action).

The laws need to change. The referee should have three clear choices. Award a try, restart the game some other way, or call a time-out and consult with the assistants and/or TMO before making one of those two decisions. Once a try or a restart (scrum 5, 22 drop out, penalty etc.) is awarded, even if they are shown to be wrong, it is a referee error and the decision stands. Some lee-way - the referee can put his arm up (as if signalling a try) or signal some other choice (held up say) and then immediately call for advice to indicate their belief but their need to check.

On the flip-side, although it's not his fault, the recommendation from the assistant referee to check the Nadolo try was an cowardly one. Peyper, quite reasonably, couldn't see. He was close to the ruck, more than half the width of the pitch away. But that was quite clearly a try, why did we need to check? There was no hint of foul play either. Peyper wanted to award the try but the assistant recommended he check. The assistant is 2m away and has a clear view of the action. Peyper was more like 25m away and had 2 bodies in the way. Of course he's going to take that recommendation - he did exactly the right thing and should be commended, not pilloried for it. The muppet that made the recommendation should be pilloried though - what did he think he saw?

Ben Kay is of the opinion on neck rolls and the like that the public and the players will accept the referees and their assistants getting it wrong on borderline cases rather than going to the TMO on every case. While I have sympathy for this and in the long run this will be what it settles down to, I think for the first couple of weeks of the RWC we're not going to see it. Neck rolls are possibly more dangerous than most high tackles that we see these days. With a neck roll you grab someone around the neck and use that hold to roll them out of the ruck - which I imagine is as painful as it sounds, and it means it's a forward who is probably off balance and ends up with another forward landing on his head/neck. Most high tackles these days are an arm out in reflex with relatively little power or and arm which impacts high but is angled down - a lot of the power is not to the head/neck, it's spread over the chest/shoulders/arms still. It's undoubtedly more dangerous than being hit lower but the real old-fashioned head-high smacks are met by cards, often red cards straight away, and consequently have disappeared. The officials are keen to prove they're being really hot on this, and they're keen to prove they're going to be hot in terms of penalties and cards. I suspect they're also going to use the TMO a lot to drive that point home to everyone. Name and publicly shame to make sure all the players and coaches really get the message.

But will the actual TMO is a good thing, the process needs to be looked at and improved. And soon please!

Changing Northern Hemisphere Rugby to make it work

It's pretty obvious to anyone with half a brain that the Southern Hemisphere sides punch above their weight, have punched above their weight for years, in terms of their population compared to their world rankings.

Since the advent of professional rugby they've been the dominant sides in terms of Rugby World Cups, IRB world rankings and so on.

Although there are lots of things, one thing that I think really makes a big difference, and the recent rebranding of the Heineken Cup won't change, is the structure of their rugby competitions.

Obviously their internationals play test matches, in June against touring Northern Hemisphere sides, in August/September against each other and in November they tour the Northern Hemisphere. This is roughly the same as the reciprocal tours and the Six Nations. So lets assume that doesn't need to change. You can argue that home and away tests between South Africa, New Zealand and Australia (and Argentina now) are more of a challenge than Italy and Scotland in recent years but there are still a number of tough matches each year too.

Under that, though, the contests are very different.

In the Southern Hemisphere they have Super Rugby which runs roughly from February until June (or just after the June test window now, although this will probably change again next year) in which a smallish number of franchises (currently 5 in each of the SANZAR nations) plays. All the test players who are healthy play, along with a wider pool (about 4x as many others) who are mostly test hopefuls, rising potential stars. Then, while the Rugby Championship and November tours are going on, the next level down contest takes place. None of the test players are available, but there are (in New Zealand and South Africa at least) about 12 clubs in this contest. The non-test players and the really young up-and-coming stars mix and play for their provinces or similar. (There are levels under this too, called club rugby.)

In the Northern Hemisphere, although the fine details vary, there are large national (or super-national for Ireland, Scotland, Wales and Italy) leagues that play long seasons and play through the internationals as their time to play younger players as well. Then, although the new competition will change this slightly, there are bursts of 2 weekends back to back taken out several times through the year where the best sides from last season play against each other for 'European glory.'

Now, rugby is very much a sport where you learn the basics yes - how to pass, tackle, kick etc. - how to scrummage, perform in the line out and so on. But a lot of what makes the difference between a good player and a great player is doing the right thing, brilliantly, when under pressure in the right way. Some of that comes from within, certainly. But some of that comes from talking to people who have done it and are willing to share their experience with you and help you get it.

The Southern Hemisphere system gives you a system where the best players play against the best, but spread their experience somewhat. 50 or so test players dilute their experience to 5 franchises and 200 extra players, supporting the others who play reserve in their position. Those 200 people then take their experience to about another 400 or so players. Plus, of course, most of the time you won't have the test player and their sub playing for the same franchise so the test experience is spread out to two or sometimes three franchises.

In the Northern Hemisphere it stays very tightly within the silo of the club.

There are other differences. Particularly the New Zealand sides (and they're always the gold standard when it comes to rugby) tend to play very similar styles. Why not? It works nicely after all. Sides in the Northern Hemisphere very much have a sense of individual style, and then a different style (maybe) for their country. It's a bit different if you look at Australia and South Africa but not all that different - their styles are different to New Zealand, but they're largely similar to each other.

The remedy? It won't be easy. There's a lot of traditions and history to overcome and traditions that don't place the national side's glory at the top of the heap.

I think all the top tier NH nations need to have a contest that runs from perhaps a late September start until the 6N. Then a proper break for the internationals. Then a proper pan-european contest with, if possible, different sides. If not, at least pick the top sides THIS year so you don't have the farce of a side that was great last year but has disintegrated (with retirements and so on) and is dropping like a stone this year being in the top-flight contest. (It has happened, more than once.)

Will it necessarily fix things? No. I think you need to mix things up more than the clubs staying together so there's more spreading of knowledge and understanding and experience. While I'm a big fan of Warren Gatland I don't think the resurgence in Welsh rugby's fortune's is down to him. It's no coincidence that Wales moved to four or five (the numbers have changed) super-franchises with the older clubs under them, feeding players up.

Of course, while the remedy is relative easy to prescribe, this isn't a case of getting one patient to agree. As Welsh rugby - where there are relatively few stakeholders - shows, getting all the stakeholders to agree is a very fraught process. English rugby has more stakeholder. French rugby even more. Then agreeing some format for (another) new look European competition... I honestly doubt it will happen.

So, it's early for a prediction for the RWC. But barring injury disasters, don't be surprised if a team that plays South of the equator lifts it yet again.

Lions squad 2013

Test Side

1. Healy
2. Hibbard
3. Jones
4. Launchbury
5. Wyn Jones (c)
6. Warburton
7. Tipuric
8. Faletau
9. Phillips
10. Sexton
11. North
12. Twelvetrees
13. Edwards
14. Cuthbert
15. Halfpenny

Reserves

Jenkins, Best, Cole, Ryan Jones, Youngs, Farrell, Brown, Roberts

Dirt-trackers

1. Marler
2. Youngs
3. Grant
4. Hamilton
5. Coombs
6. Robshaw (c)
7. Haskell
8. Morgan
9. Weir
10. Biggar
11. Maitland
12. Tuilagi
13. Barritt
14. Bowe/Zebo
15. Hogg

Overal count per nation:

Wales 16

England 13

Scotland 5

Ireland 4

Healy is the only really surprising choice in the first XV, but the Lions probably can't work Jenkins back to starting fitness in time after the end of season in France. Wyn Jones wins his place as the experienced captain as well as on form. Twelvetrees for some creativity against the Aussie backs. Ryan Jones is there to cover a lot of positions and is probably unlucky on “utility back five” tag and how well that Wales back row worked against England. Parling is unlucky to miss the flight but I wanted the option of a big centre or an extra kicker from hand and so had to squeeze both Roberts and Farrell in somehow! If I swap out Farrell and Roberts for Hook, then Parling would get on the plane - but picking someone who no longer gets a lot of playing time on the international stage seems unreasonable.

In the dirt trackers, Maitland is in as a good utility back, but also with his Crusaders experience of other stadia, players and the like. I think someone with first-hand experience adds to watching video and well Wales know the main players all too well, I expect some fresh blood too, mainly from the young Brumbies on current form. I'd like to take both Bowe and Zebo, but I'm not sure on fitness grounds, so they're bracketed. Biggar starts here for extra experience. If Sexton is injured or out of form he'd jump straight up to the test squad for me, over Farrell.

If I can take extra bodies over the 38 listed, Parling and then probably the young Welsh prop (James I think?) make it up to a 40-man squad.

O'Driscoll, it won't surprise those of you that listen to me talk about rugby, doesn't make a 4th trip. Yes, he has a load of experience and flashes of brilliance. If he does go, he could provide the x-factor that wins a game for the Lions. But so could Edwards and Twelvetrees that I've picked in the centres ahead of him. I think they're more likely to do that than O'Driscoll, than the 2013 model of O'Driscoll anyway. Neither of them are as good as BOD in his pomp but in his final years? Both perform better week-in, week-out.

Six Nations 2013: Team of the tournament

As I normally do I'm going to review this season's tournament by looking at my team of the tournament. Injuries, a few suspensions and the like have made this harder than normal - people who probably should be included aren't going to make it because they missed too many games for me to feel it's fair to include them. In a break from tradition, however, I'm going to be lazy. Every team had its off periods. If Wales had shown up for the first half against Ireland, they might have won back-to-back slams. Or not of course. England failed to show up for the second half against Wales, and really failed to show up against Italy and in the first half against France. France didn't really show up until Scotland yesterday. In fact, rather satisfyingly, the order in the final table is in reverse order of the number of poor halves played. And, since Wales were imposing themselves on England before England fell asleep, and Wales and England were clearly better than the other four teams this year, I'm just going to do this: Eloise's team of the Six Nations: Look at the Wales team sheet from the match against England. From 1-15, I'm picking the Welsh team. Now, I should say, this is based on my habit of picking units rather than individuals as much as possible. The Welsh front row dominated the English, French, Scottish and Italian front rows. In fact it monstered most of them repeatedly and cruelly. That sort of thing rarely happens, certainly not against all those sides. So, although I have doubts about Hibbard's lineout throwing, Jones, Hibbard and Jenkins are in. The only place I'm not sure about this red domination is the locks on a unit rather than player by player basis. England's locks were very good, as a unit, at most scrums, carrying the ball, clearing rucks, and at the lineout. However, in that critical game, yesterday, they didn't dominate, so I'm going with the Welsh pair. I think Parling and Launchbury were better in the line out over the championship as a whole, but that is only part of their role and they didn't impose even that on the Welsh. There are individuals who are probably hard done by here. Parra along with Picamoles shone for the French. Comparing Parra and Phillips is rather chalk and cheese for scrum halves. But, to my mind, Phillips was strong throughout, whenever Wales needed him to be. He was helped in that by stronger people around him than Parra, but while Parra was great he couldn't drag his team-mates up and inspire them while Phillips could and did. Fofana was brilliant in the centres, as expected, and wasted for too long on the wings. Parese was suspended for a game, but brilliant and inspirational for the Italians. Picamoles, Parese and Read are in a meaningful discussion for "best 8 in the world" which is a step up for Picamoles now. Falatau, good Welshman that he is, is not in that discussion. However, if you were to list the top 5 number 8's I think he'd be in that discussion. There are a couple of South Africans, an Aussie, an Irishman and an Englishman who are also in that discussion but Falatau is there on merit. While thinking of the Italians, Masi also deserves a mention: he was clearly Italy's second best player after Parese, he was a strong, great full back, solid on defence, incisive in attack. Hogg too shone at full back. Halfpenny's goal kicking can be discounted (although not necessarily in terms of the impact of taking a task away from Biggar to let him concentrate on other things to his and the team's benefit) as outside the full back role. But Halfpenny hardly made a mistake throughout the five games and while he didn't make the sweeping, penetrating runs that Masi and Hogg both did, he was often the extra man to pass the ball to those big wingers. Hamilton, for the Scots imposed himself at lineout time, repeatedly. He was good around the park too. I think he'll be on the Lions tour, possibly at the expense of Evans, but as part of a pair the Scottish locks weren't strong enough for my list. Heaslip and Healey from the Irish can count themselves as unlucky too - but Heaslip had one shocker of a game and several mediocre games and doesn't make it to my list. The Irish hooker might count himself as unlucky too. But given I've been reduced to calling him "the Irish hooker" shows how much he imposed himself on my consciousness. Zebo is the other notable Irish absentee: Against Wales he was scintillating. Then he injured himself. He is a great talent but one game and ten minutes into the next one is not enough to get you into my list for team of the tournament. Before the tournament Sexton would have been written in to most people's lists. After his injuries he's not making my team of the tournament consideration. He'll almost certainly go to Australia in the summer though. There aren't enough names here for a Lions touring team - but I'd be surprised if there aren't a LOT of Welsh players on the plane.

Start of the Six Nations

France beat Italy in Paris. Not really any surprises there, although seeing a French side play very much like the All Blacks is a bit scary. They defended and as soon as their was a critical mistake from Italy they swooped and ruthlessly scored tries. The verve and fire from France, the élan that we associate with them - and with the All Blacks in fairness - was absent and they didn't seem to really create but the coach and the players will, I suspect all be happy. It will be interesting to see how France do against Ireland and Wales though.

Italy seem to be still improving. Starting your campaign in Paris is not easy for anyone but despite a number of new players in this "just after the world cup" season Italy look better than they did overall last year (despite their famous victory over Les Bleus).

Scotland and England ugh. A poor side with a surprisingly porous defence managed to win over a side that created all the opportunities (Hodgson's try was good defensive play, not anything creative) because the more creative side seemed, en masse, to panic in the last 22m. Passes weren't thrown, when they were thrown they weren't good passes, when they were good passes they were still dropped.

Scotland have real problems. They really seem to lack composure in the attacking 22. They don't support attacking players well and they don't score their tries. But that will, I feel, paper over the cracks that were present in England's performance. I'm listening to pundits prattling on about how good the English defence was. The trouble is, it was at times, but watch the match and watch how often Scotland broke the defensive line - if they hadn't done that I would have commented on their poor play with the offloads and support play. England would have deserved their win if they had defended that well, because Scotland would never have created the chances that they blew.

Again it will be interesting to see how these two perform against the better sides. Wales, Ireland and France will rip these two apart. They might blow the odd chance but they will make plenty and convert most of them. There could be several 25+ point blow-outs this year.

What goes in to making a rugby great?

Obviously, from the player and their various coaches, physios and the like, a lot of work and effort and dedication. But that wasn't quite what I meant.

Rather, if you look at the sizes of player pools available why are some hitting way over their weight? Looking at the senior males numbers, England have 166,000, France 110,000, South Africa 109,000. Although there isn't a convenient sort routine, Australia at about 40k, then USA at 35k, beat out a cluster of New Zealand, Ireland and Wales at around 25k, then it's a step down to Scotland and Italy (around 12k) and then the rest of the world. (Note that Argentina don't report senior male numbers but have total males > Australia, so should possibly be up above Australia for senior males too.)

So why are the USA so low in the world rankings (17 at the moment). Although England and South Africa have been world number 1, I don't think France has, and New Zealand are, however much you might not want to hear it, the most successful side since rankings were introduced, with the highest ever rating and by far the longest possession of the number 1 spot despite being 6th or 7th in terms of total size?

I suspect the answer is largely in the mind. Or perhaps more accurately in the experience. While you can argue who the fittest (in a physical sense) individual is, certainly down to Italy and Scotland in the rankings and sizes, you don't see sides routinely win because of better fitness - although you can see sides in the lead stretch that with a combination of mental and physical willingness. But rugby, perhaps more than any other team sport, is about the brain. Making the choices to join the ruck or stand off, pass, off-load, take the tackle and so on. They are all essential choices in rugby that every player makes throughout the game. This is why someone like Brian O'Driscoll is still a very good player. He doesn't have the speed and agility that made him dangerous as a younger man, but he knows now much better how to apply himself, when to find that extra burst of power or force his old bones to make that swerve. (OK, I'm making him sound like he's only walking with a zimmer frame and he's still fit enough for 80 minutes of international rugby but it is clearly getting harder and harder for him to stay at the top level physically.)

And here, I think, national culture and club structures play a vital role. England and France play club rugby not to lose and with a lot of foreign players. The former Celtic league (now with Italy of course), Super Rugby and the like, play largely with home-grown players and because there is no penalty beyond pride for losing, they play to win. In addition, all these countries have relatively few top-flight sides - four or five typically, but because they're largely home-grown talent you also have a solid pool of players at the highest level not dissimilar to the pools of the biggest countries' unions. Plus you have the benefit of being able to choose more combinations of players used to playing together at club level as well - Nonu and Smith (both Hurricanes) beat out any combination with SBW in big matches due, I largely suspect, to familiarity. When Carter and Slade went down, Cruden (also a Hurricane last year) slotted in comfortably between Weepu (ALSO a Hurricane) and Nonu - how much did that familiarity help them all?

Add to that in New Zealand well coached, structured and scouted rugby from at least the age of seven, and a system (NPC) under Super Rugby level that mixes new talent, talent at current Super Rugby but not quite All Black level and retired All Blacks for a year or two, and you also get a system that spreads the skills and experience into the youngsters.

And that, I suspect, is the true magic. All those things that we're used to seeing the All Blacks do so well, year after year, game after game, are down to the fact that when as a brash youngster of 22 or so they take they field, they play with an extra chunk of year's experience behind them of playing top-flight competitive age-group rugby. They're making the smart choices of the BOD of today, with the physical exuberance of the BOD of a decade ago.

Team of the tournament

It's very tempting, from 1-15 to put All Blacks' in here. They did, after all, win so as a team they were the best.

But after a close semi-final, close 3-4th play-off and close final it's pretty clear that's not fair to a lot of class players.

As usual for me, I'm going to look for what I consider to be consistency through the tournament wherever possible, and cluster players by groups to some extent.

Front Row:

This is an almost impossible choice. How many sides wouldn't welcome Woodcock, Mealamu, Franks, Poux, Servat and Mas, Jones and Jenkins (at least) into their front row. Add to this, those first choice players were occasionally beaten in a game by their opponents, but occasionally beat them too. Even Australia showed up in the 3/4 play off.

Woodcock gets the nod for me, that try being the icing on the cake. Jenkins on the other side - rarely beaten in the tight, plus tackling and carrying all around the park. Mealamu just edges Servat. Mas and Franks unlucky to lose out, and although Jones didn't make the cut, Wales certainly need him.

Second Row:

Again a hard choice. Chateris made Wales have a line out again. The other Welsh locks didn't let their side down, but seemed to rotate a bit too much for consideration. Nallet always looked good. Thorn and Whitelock started every match and never looked bad. Horwill led Australia well and Sharpe looked good when he played.

I'm going to give the nod here to Thorn and Whitelock. The AB line out never creaked when the ball was near them, and they stole ball from everyone.

Back Row:

An embarrassment of riches here. Warburton, Pocock, McCaw, Dusatoir all competing for one place. Harinordoqui, Read and Faletau for another, Lydiate and Kaino for the third.

McCaw gets one berth. He beat Pocock round the park in that semi while it was close with Dusatoir, more consistent through the whole tournament gets him the nod. Warburton loses out for a nod here thank's the Alain Rolland. But he (and Brussow) will be fighting Ritchie's crown over the next few years. Faletau just gets the nod at 8. He looked too good against France with and without Warburton to lose it to Harinordiqui, Read missed too many matches at the beginning, although he was probably the 8 of the knock-out stages. Kaino at blind-side. He was immense throughout the tournament.

Scrum-half:

Weepu wins here. All the others deserve a consideration - Yachvilli, Phillips and Genia would grace almost any team. Weepu gets it for me for taking the rotating junior 10's and making it work for them and the All Blacks. Yes, his kicking was off in the final, Yachvilli kicked well for France. Genia's movement of the ball was largely good. Philips certainly impressed. But Weepu picked up the potentially shattered hopes of a nation watching Carter collapse in pain, put them back together and dragged his various mates over the line.

Number 10:

Who to choose here? No one finished with their first choice. Cooper played most games, but looked really subdued in two critical games - bad against SA and NZ. Carter is still the class player. Cruden looked good in his 2 matches, but only played 2. Parra stood up in a relatively unfamiliar position and looked OK until the final. Priestland looked good, and Wales certainly missed him.

Priestland it is. He played more than any of them except Cooper and didn't have a bad game while he played. I think Carter and Cruden in years to come will be a devastating 1-2 for NZ, and not sure that Dan will be the man come 2015 any longer, but Priestland has had a great introduction on the biggest stage.

12 and 13:

Australia struggled to keep their centres playing too much for any to get onto the list when everyone else had their first choice play throughout. Sorry to you all - especially Barnes who probably deserved more time. Smith or Davis in one slot; Roberts, Rougerie or Nonu in the other? Before the tournament I would have said SBW would be on the list, but he didn't play enough, although he looked good when he did.

Roberts is an easy shout to my mind. He always looked dangerous, he made holes for others to exploit and put them through them reliably. Nonu had a quiet game or two, Rougerie to quiet in the pool stages.

Davis or Smith is harder. They both looked solid in all parts of their game, doing what was asked of them. Davis just edges it because he seemed to look more dangerous on attack - how much of this was playing outside Roberts I'm not sure but it's enough for me.

Back three:

Because they're so often interchangeable these days I'm picking all three as a group.

Fun and games here. Clerc - joint top try scorer? Williams who attracted attention every time he touched the ball and still scored some nice tries? Jane who looked so awesome under the high balls? Kahui who played there a lot and never looked bad despite playing out of position? North? Halfpenny? Dagg - who more or less kept Muliaina out of the XV when fit? O'Connor can't be overlooked either, not just for his kicking. Australia suffered a bit here with the poor form of their forwards and Cooper, the wings seemed too quiet, full back changed too much with centres getting crocked.

Clerc, Jane and Dagg. Clerc for the attacking edge just beats Williams and North. Jane for his amazing defence under the high ball, around the park and his ability to attack from there. Dagg... beating out Muliaina is no mean feat. He just edges Halfpenny despite the skill and long range kicking the latter brings.

So there we go.

9 All Blacks, 5 Welshmen and a Frenchman. A few Aussies that can consider themselves unlucky, injuries and the bad form of others pulled them down a bit.

Wales will be the side to beat come the 6N it appears...

Whiney, whingey England

Over the last few days we've had a multitude of reports from senior England players (or soon-to-be-ex England players) complaining about everything from "The media were out to get us" to "They don't understand what we were doing, the reporting isn't fair."

Let's be clear here - as a rugby fan I know and accept that rugby players drink. I've seen rugby players royally pissed, rolled onto the team bus to get home at the end of a tournament and the like. It's not necessarily right, smart or anything else, but it happens. It's not really a story.

However, out on the lash and seemingly really drunk in the middle of a tournament - that's news. It was news, even over here, that Cory Jane and Israel Dagg were 'so drunk they were slurring' in the middle of the tournament. Particularly for Jane who was meant to be playing in a couple of days. OK, the players out in Queenstown add to that the spice of Tindall, recently married, with an old flame which may have made it more of a splash. But although both management teams were fairly low-key, one group said "Rugby players drink beer, shock!" and dismissed it entirely. The other group said "We've told them we're not happy. Jane better play a blinder on Saturday." The behaviour of one group was possibly more newsworthy, but the indication that the management team had taken some action - however minor - defused the second incident much more efficiently.

Then there's the harassment of the chambermaid, the apology and the like. If they were 18 year olds on tour it might be understandable. Harassing and scaring someone is not acceptable ever but a crowd of young adults on tour together - you can understand that although it's clearly not right, they might go too far with something that's meant to be joking around. By the time they're in their 20's, professional sportsmen and representing their country - it's much harder to understand. I understand men will tease women. Most women understand it will happen too - whether or not they enjoy it, think it's right or otherwise, they understand it happens. And most of them quite reasonably expect that when they show signs of distress it stops. Most men seem to honour that. But not these three.

And then the "Manu overboard" situation. If that had been the only incident, it would probably have been laughed off by everyone except the NZ Police. But at the end of the tour they've had, what were his mates thinking putting him up to it? What was he thinking accepting? Did they check in their brains on arrival?

And maybe they did. Cueto thinks the criticism of England's play was unfair. Which part I wonder? The range of incisive, attacking runners? You know, the ones that didn't show up against Argentina, Scotland or France. Matches where even England fans consider England were lucky to get 2 from 3 wins. The oddness of a selection in the last match where Flood was played in an unfamiliar position (at both club and international level), with an inexperienced player outside him, and the player inside who didn't have a great tournament having to get used to another new partner. Two players not renowned for their defence - one through inexperience and one through unfamiliarity with the role and being small - playing in the centres who amongst their other roles include the defensive leader of the team. Face it, France didn't play well for most of that match - although that one try was pretty damn good - they played an OK match. Just England were bad. Even their moments of luck, that brought them through against the other quality sides they played, weren't enough to let them sneak another win. And this is unreasonable?

Someone asked me the other day if Shaun Edwards would be part of the England set-up. I think he'll stay in Wales. I hope he does in fact. Why would anyone move to England? The players, senior, intermediate and junior seem to be out of phase with each other, the management and any understanding of reasonable behaviour. The RFU itself is a mess. Anyone could take the job on Monday with one structure in place and by the end of the Six Nations have a totally different structure above and around him, probably without any say in the matter. Leave a country where the team is on the up, your stock is high, and there is a strong chance that you could be one of the top four countries in the world come the next RWC to go to a country where you'll spend the best part of a year without support, structure and a clear plan. Where you have the joy of a team clearly not pulling together in any way that matters. Maybe he's really up for a new challenge, but man is that ever a challenge.

Teams of the pool stages

Usually when I do this sort of thing, I pick a 15 man squad. This time I won't be doing that, because with 600+ players, most of who have played a bit in one match or another and largely not against each other, it would be a mammoth task.

In addition, you have to wonder, or I do, in how many positions I wouldn't be choosing an All-Black. There is competition at some places - perhaps most surprisingly 7 - but they are the #1 side in the world, playing at home and playing like #1. How the loss of Dan Carter will affect that, we will have to see.

What I am going to do, instead, is pick out two sides that have particularly impressed me, one from those going (or gone) home, one from those going forward into the later stages.

The team from those going home that has most impressed me is Russia. Russia are new to rugby, new to the RWC, and yes, they lost all 4 of their matches. They were comfortably beaten by Ireland, Italy and Australia - but they weren't totally blown away by any of them (unlike say Namibia) and they looked aware of how to play and not overawed in all their matches. Sides like Canada, USA etc. looked more composed but performed to expectations, Russia performed better in all their matches than I think anyone expected. Italy and Scotland, both going home, somewhat disappointed. Scotland lost two matches they could (and in one case would, with better officiating) have won but for about 1 minute of madness in total. For Italy, perhaps losing to Ireland and Australia was expected, but except against Australia, Ireland have looked out of sorts but wound up comfortably beating the Azuri, and stuff their much vaunted scrum.

Of those staying a week or more longer, Wales is, by the same criteria, my most impressive team. The All-Blacks looked good against France and I was inclined to think that was because they played well rather than France playing badly - but then came Tonga. Ireland produced only one really good performance. England have looked flat and lucky against both Argentina and Scotland. France... well Tonga. Australia - well Ireland and their next match: Cooper in particular looks out of sorts. Argentina have looked solid, but are only going forwards thanks to Barnes and co, not their talents. It's particularly hard to imagine them performing well in their side of the draw. South Africa have looked largely OK but have some serious issues - particularly at hooker. They've grown into the tournament though.

Wales though - were unlucky against South Africa, a team ranked a long way above them, and probably deserved a win (as well as actually scoring enough points for it although all the officials missed a penalty goal being scored). They've looked sharp and ruthless against Samoa and Fiji, both bogey sides, and kept their concentration against Namibia. Wales are certainly side that can look sharp when they're a little lucky, but they've looked sharp and good rather than sharp and lucky, even against South Africa they looked sharp and good when unlucky. There's no guarantee that they will go through Ireland, but they certainly have a good chance in what must be one of the hardest quarter-finals to call for all the right reasons.

My predictions:

New Zealand v South Africa for one semi. New Zealand to dispatch Argentina brutally, even without Carter. South Africa to choke the life out of Australia as Ireland did.

England v Wales for the other. France can always produce a performance and are hurting, but I think England will grind it out of them in a dull match. Wales to defend against Ireland doggedly and not take all their chances but make and take enough to get through.

Bad refereeing

What makes for a bad refereeing mistake?

Let's be honest - every referee makes a mistake every now and again. Probably less often than players and coaches believe in the heat of the moment, but make mistakes they do.

But why are some of them shrug and move on, while others are talked about for days, weeks, sometimes even years?

I rather think the quality of offence is irrelevant. It could be a knock-on to a head-butt - a scrum to a red card - and it might be talked about for ages to come. The clarity and impact of the offence means more - much more.

Contemponi's offside against Scotland was clear - he was miles offside - and critical - because it affected the outcome of the match very clearly. Last second, award a penalty in front of the sticks to the side that's 1 point down... he might have missed of course, but it's very unlikely. It's destined to hang around on Barnes' resume, along with that forward pass and so on for a long time. And Mr. Barnes has just missed another one, catching the retaliation and not the original offence. OK, that's not uncommon, but the original offence wasn't subtle and should have been caught.

There is another issue I believe - that is having a feel for the spirit of the game. Rugby is a game, perhaps more than any other, where circumstances come into play at every moment. A player crawling out the wrong side of the ruck is technically offside but is rolling away from the ball letting the other team play it (at least supposedly). The whistle shouldn't (and usually doesn't) go for that, unless that player impedes the other side playing the ball before he gets back onside. I remember one Tri-Nations match when the opposite lock was pretty much in the three-quarter line and the side with the ball just passed the ball across in front of him like he wasn't there. Clearly offside, but he kept his discipline and watched the ball go by in front of him and the referee kept his cool and let the play develop - not even an advantage because he didn't interfere. Smart and definitely right in terms of letting the game flow. If the referee is one that is generally believed to have a good sense of the game, his mistakes are perhaps overlooked or forgiven more easily. If they're a martinet and blow for every little thing, then missing something is even less acceptable.

RWC Good and bad

As we've got further into the world cup the tier 2 nations have appeared worse and worse. I suspect there are three reasons for this.

First, as a less professional side, it's relatively easy to get up for the first game, but it gets harder and harder as the tournament progresses.

Second, the big teams are, to use a cliché, finding their straps and getting their form teams together, combinations working. In week one playing a bit below par still gives you a win if you're a big side. Come week 3 or 4, you're not worrying about the tier 2 nation, you're playing to show combinations and form for the quarter-finals.

Neither of these can really be changed. But the third one can be looked at.

The 'big' nations play every week or so. They get 6 or more days between matches. The smaller nations often get only 4. Namibia played their 4 RWC matches in 16 days! That's a challenge to fitness and conditioning that even the fittest of the top-flight teams would struggle with - although they have the resources to put out two sides pretty much which the smaller sides don't. That could be changed.

I understand that there's a strong desire to have the big sides play at the weekends to get better TV audiences, and an equal drive to get matches, or at least a match, on every day to keep the audience hooked. However, Russia vs USA or similar is one for the real purists to be honest.

So, what to do? If you have a pattern spreading the 4 groups over 7 days, and we count Friday, Saturday and Sunday as the weekend (possibly only one evening game on a Friday) then we should be able to construct a timetable so that the "big" matches are on the peak viewing days, but there's rugby every day. In addition, we should be able to create a timetable such that everyone gets at least 6 days rest. This might not be as good as 7 days, but will be fairer on the weaker sides, the squads with less depth and so on. It will, of course, also let the bigger sides have a bit more chance to soak sore muscles and recover from minor injuries.

I sketched out such a timetable and you can do it. In fact it becomes quite easy to expand the competition slightly, add a 6th team in each pool and spread rugby wider. I understand this is expensive and time consuming - but you could also add an extra layer (a shield and plate contest similar to 7's) of knock-out rounds. More time, more matches, more TV revenue.

And I hope whoever takes the baton for the next one has noted just how good choirs sound singing anthems. They are, after all, designed for mass singing and it sounds good. The duets last time worked but the choirs have been great. Lets do it again please?

I was going to rant about Wayne Barnes. He has no sympathy for the game, no feel for it, and yet again he's made a critical and obvious mistake in a match that has directly and clearly affected the outcome. Everyone makes mistakes, and everyone accepts that. If they don't, they don't survive long playing the game, nor watching it. But if you're selecting the best referees you want to pick people that don't make big critical ones often. Missing a knock-on in the middle of a ruck... ok. Missing a player 6m offside causing the drop kick to win the game to miss... not OK. Call a ball being reefed back out of control but legally (I think) a knock-on by the other side - bad. Appearing to change how you referee the break-down REALLY bad.

OK, I've ranted a bit. Hopefully he'll get the shove. Again. And someone will learn.

The first week of the RWC

This week has been too hectic to allow for a review of each match, in fact, I haven't managed to watch more than highlights of some.

The best match, despite the result, of week 1 was SA v Wales. Wales played really well, and South Africa were lucky to win. In fairness, though, South Africa v Wales was, to both me and a die-hard Boks fan I know too close to call for the first time in a while. The wheels could fall off the Welsh wagon - they seem rather lacking in depth in too many positions to cope with injuries for example - but their first 15 are genuinely world-quality players, with certainly Warburton challenging to be recognised as the best open side in the world. I don't think he's there yet, but in a year or two, I think he'll take the crown - stealing it from McCaw's hands, and nudging aside Pocock and Brussow in the process.

The other thing to take away has been the improvement of the so-called minnows. Japan scared France. Scotland were lucky against Romania, Ireland did outclass USA - but it was a match rather than a demolition. On Wednesday Canada thoroughly deserved to beat Tonga - maybe not a huge upset, but a result that 4 years ago would have been unthinkable. The IRB deserves a lot of credit for this. They have been putting money, facilities and training opportunities into improving the game for the Tier 2 nations, and more widely. We're seeing the results of that. In some way rugby is a hard game to do that with... if one side is just 1% better than the other at every position you can get some very one-sided results, even at the highest level. In football, for example, if you're within 5% at every position, winning, or drawing is plausible, but not really in rugby. But that gulf in the Tier 2 nations is down from 5-10% to 2-5% , and maybe this year, more likely in 4 years time if the improvements continue, the weaker top tier sides will lose - at least one of them.

It would be nice to see changes to make the gap narrow even more. In the Southern Hemisphere it's a bit harder, but perhaps inviting a NZ Maori side into the Pacific Nations Cup would make sense to get exposure to the toughest competition. In the Norther Hemisphere there is already an understrength Shadow Six Nations (A-teams from the countries that field them). Making that up to 6 nations by inviting the better teams in tier 2 to replace the major nations that don't field an A-team should make sense to all of them - and a competition for the second tier nations in the November test window would let you determine the top teams and give them more match practise. There must be other ways to do this too, but they are at least moving the right way.

The spectacle and the matches are doing their normal thing. We've had grinding matches, we've finally had a blow-out, but interest is high, at least chez moi.

Will Canada follow up their good performance against Tonga to deliver against an unpredictable and unsettled France? Will Ireland suddenly shake off their cobwebs and remember why they're called the Golden Generation? Or will they be remembered as the generation that hung on for a year or two too long? Will Samoa repeat their heroics of a few weeks ago when they beat Australia in Australia, and repeat Welsh heartache?

I wouldn't put money on any of those results to be honest. In fact if I were a betting sort of girl, I might put money on Australia to beat the spread, I'm so underwhelmed by Ireland. But three matches from six well worth watching for that risk of significant upset should make for a good weekend.

FInal Warm-Up Matches

Well, the dust has settled, save for the actual games.

Questions suddenly loom though. Having lost 2 matches this year (more than they lost last year or the year before remember) have the ABs lost their matches for this year? Or have they lost momentum and will struggle against Australia/SA if they meet them? Also, their last match cost them (probably) Thompson and quite possibly Read for the tournament. New Zealand is blessed with an incredible number of loose forwards and although I rate Thompson replacing him is not too hard. Read though... he's a genuine contender for best in his position in the world. Losing him is a blow.

England also have questions to answer. A string of injuries... can they risk Moody? How bad is Easter etc. But they have a bigger series of questions too. Flood or Wilkinson at 10? Flood is inventive but not quite the boss that Wilkinson is. Wilkinson can be forced back into his shell - Ireland managed it yesterday - and his shell seems to include aimless, poor kicking from hand and no ability to generate good ball to the outside backs. Should Tuilangi start or Hape? There's no doubt that Hape is a stronger defensive option, but Tuilangi is a better attacking option. But losing 35-28 or 25-20 in a quarter-final is still a loss and an earlier flight home than they'd hope for.

Ireland... OMG, where to start? They're losing their players that have looked good, and whether old heads or young tyros take to the park they look ordinary at best. Actually, they look poor. They look poor like they'd struggle in the ITM cup, and bearing in mind this is the feeder-level (albeit in New Zealand) for Super Rugby, with a mix of teenagers and old hands and fringe AB players the standard is usually good but it shouldn't be up to defeating a decent international team and Ireland have been Europe's dominant side for the last couple of years.

Planning, tinkering, and doubtless much pontificating is due to come in the next 12 days. Finally the talking will be done on the pitch. And predictions? I'd still say the ABs to win it all, but with less confidence. Australia are certainly a threat. South Africa could be. France, England and with slightly more caution Wales are the other realistic contenders. There will be blow-outs, there will be shocks, but there will be weeks of excellent rugby too. Can't wait!

RWC Build up #2

Based on this weekend's action, what's happened to my listings?

Well, Scotland and New Zealand didn't play. But my top 3 places to coach have stayed the same. I still think NZ will most likely win. Australia might not have won convincingly, but win they did, in South Africa. Can't hurt the morale. Ditto Wales. Wales failed to impose themselves at the scrum, but there's still two Lions props to come back all being well. The breakdown and the tackle were immense though and they stopped England too. And when they did manufacture a chance, they took it ruthlessly. Kudos to them.

My bottom 3 places? On balance also the same names, but a slightly different order.

#1 Ireland lost to Scotland and then to France. I didn't see the game, but many more stars and... oops. Are they ageing too much for former glories to see them through? Where does Kidney hide now? No new talent and his stars not performing.

#2 England. Johnson might be playing a very cunning plan, but he must be worried that Hape + Tindall seem to have made a mockery of the amount of ball they had, and that on-field choices to go for tries backfired so badly. On another day they will, and have, beat Wales and not have such dominance of possession and territory. But that failure to exploit the chances they did make that hurt them so much against Wales will hurt them at least in the quarter-finals and possibly in the pool stages too. A loss to Argentina in the pool stages must be a real chance, followed by the ABs in the quarters. Even if they avoid that, France in the quarters in New Zealand... playing like that England will lose. Johnson might know his 30 by now, but does he have a plan for his teams?

#3 SA. Yes, they lost. But the big stars were out for their first game in a while and it was close. You have to imagine they'll get more match fit for next week and although starting against a potentially rampant Wales (especially if they beat Argentina next week) might not be the best way for them to start, and Fiji and Samoa might not be as easy as you'd like either if the Boks do lose to Wales, it's a group even I sadly expect them to win. But miracles do happen, and Wales v SA as the opening match plays into The Dragons' hands (or claws) you'd have to think, especially if the ABs minus Carter and McCaw do the job next week.

RWC Build up

If I could be an international coach, where would I be?

Well, #1 is obviously New Zealand. McCaw is coming back into form. Slade looks like he might grow into excellent cover for Carter and already looks great as a utility back (he can play well at 10, 11, 14, 15) and all the coaching headaches except at maybe 7 and definitely 10, seem to be choosing the right players from a pool of excellent players at all positions. Unless Henry is suddenly afflicted with a touch of the PdVs he might get criticism from partizan supporters of a particular player who is unlucky but it's tiny differences rather than clear choices all over the park.

#2 would be Australia. Yes, based on last week's evidence Australia are going to get to the final and lose to the ABs but... it's a one-off game and there's a chance to get some moral boosting by stuffing the Boks in SA and then beating the ABs in Australia, or at least showing signs of improvement against them.

#3 would be Wales. That might seem odd, but when you're missing Hook, 2 Lions props, Lee Byrne and the like. When a side disrupted by losing their first choice 10 in the warm-up and their winger with a broken ankle too manage to outscore England 3 tries to 2 and only lose on a couple of drop-goals and at Twickenham you've got to say that's not bad. There is a need for improvement, but the training can change from the hard fitness work to the skills and combinations, plus some real quality to come back - it might not work but it's a good start.

Who wouldn't I be?

#1 on this list - least desirable place: Ireland. The mix of players returning from injury and second choice players looked poor. Very poor in fact. They deserved to get hammered by Scotland and it is only because their team made several bad choices that they weren't.

#2 South Africa. Two humiliating, massive defeats on the road. Ouch. OK, you can try and spin to the team that the first choice players won't be so bad, but that puts you in the Ireland position - second choices are very poor. And smarting from a defeat but confident overall, how will a hardened Australia do against players returning from "injury?" If they lose that, they've got a rampaging AB visit to try and cope with too. Ouch.

#3 England. Johnson may have most of his 30 decided, but it's not clear quite who they are, nor that he's got a range of good choices. He does in some places but not many. What looks like a strongly attacking midfield and outside backs combination was outscored by Wales in tries. Not great.

Who doesn't make the lists?

Scotland... There's work to be done. I'm not sure they'll do well, but on balance more positive than negative. France... didn't play. Argentina ditto.

RWC Fever

Don't get me wrong, I will be glued to the TV at some obscure times of night and day in 5 weeks time, for the following few weeks.

But I am more than a little annoyed by the speculation in the rugby press.

Nathan Sharpe has been left out of the Australia squad for this Saturday's Bledisloe Cup and Tri-Nations clash with New Zealand. People are saying this means he'll be left out of the 30 man squad for the world cup.

Why?

There's a 22-man squad for Saturday and 30 for the world cup. We've seen Australia, South Africa, and less overtly New Zealand rest key players. Where, for example, were the battles between Thorn and Matfield last Saturday? Both players were rested, that's where. No one thinks either of them will, barring injury, be left at home in September. So why must Sharpe be washed up and out of Deans' thinking? He's a veteran lock. Everyone, certainly Robbie Deans, knows what he offers the squad. He could easily be in the match-day 22 for each match Australia play in the world cup, whether starting or on the bench. OK, resting him for what could be a huge game in the Tri-Nations seems like an odd choice, but it gives Deans a chance to see 3 locks up against the All Blacks, which is a big test for them, and rest his veteran player.

Of course he could be out of favour and never pull on the green and gold again. But reading that into this choice is silly. I'm sure both Deans and Henry have talked to their larger squad. Players like Fruen have been told "Sorry, there's too much competition for your place this year, but we want you for 2012, and if there's an injury to those ahead of you, we'll still be taking you," no one doubts Kieran Read will be back into the squad. Picking wingers is going to be a nightmare - because all four he's tried so far, probable or possible say, have really put their hand up and looked good. Sharp could be dropped, but he could be rested and know that's all it is. We don't know. So why the shouting?

Team of the Six Nations

This is an unusually tricky selection this year. No side has truly dominated, having some good and some poor performances both as a team and as individuals in each position. There have also been a large number of injuries so some promising looking players have been ruled out that way. Quite a few teams have also had two players vying for some key positions, making it harder to choose them.

Front Row:
Castrogiovani, Rhys, Mitchell
Cole was unlucky here, but didn't show against Wales or Ireland. Given it was an all new Welsh front row, that cost him heavily. Mitchell might be lucky, but has impressed when stepping in to the void in Welsh props. Rhys too, had a good run as captain and fulfilled all the duties at Hooker without his main props there and in combination that got him the nod. He must have known he was using the wrong ball for that try, but it was one of those bits of gamesmanship that you see so often it's hard to criticise him for trying it.

Locks:
Wyn Jones, Gray
Both have been good in all aspects of modern lock play - line out, scrummage, tackling, ball carrying, clearing rucks etc. They've both had players better at some aspects than them, Shaw in the line out for example, but all round they were the best. Lawes might have been in the list if he'd stayed fit. Nallet had a good try and a lucky one against Wales but it was not really typical of his play. Bradley Davies had a solid championship against the poor sides. He didn't look bad against the better ones but didn't shine either.

Backrow:
Dusatoir, Parese, Warburton
This list was surprisingly easy. You may disagree but I think they were the stand-outs in each position. Again. Harinordiqui could have been in contention, most of the Scots backrow, most of the Irish and the others in the Welsh backrows too. But these were the best players I think - how they'd work in combination is another matter!

9
Phillips.
OK, he wasn't in the running really, until Youngs had a shocker and got subbed early. The French and Irish chopped and changed too much. Scotland and Italy never looked that good at 9.

10
Hook.
Hook is too good to leave out, just like Gatland found. The Irish and English kept chopping and English. Tranh Duc... maybe. But Hook played a lot at 10, made the back line tick and generally kicked well for territory and points when necessary too. He should not have been yellow-carded for a perfectly decent tackle against France.

Centres
Davies, BOD.
One young, one old, both in positions where actually no one really shone throughout. Hape and Tindall - solid in defence, dull in attack, no options save off-load to Foden/Ashton. France... well it's France. Darcy... old, slow and struggling. Italy... had a good game each, but only one and even that was only good. Ansbro looked promising at times, but doesn't quite make it.

Back three
Williams, Foden, Ashton.
Ashton was perhaps the most certain of the picks - even with a dull performance against Ireland.
I don't think Foden is world quality but he's a threat in attack and fast enough against the attacks we've seen to cope. Against SA and NZ - he might be in a lot of trouble.
Williams got the nod over Bowe (who certainly had a good game or two) because of the sheer electricity each touch bought not only to the crowd but to the defenders - even when not playing well he looked threatening because of it.

Still Welsh heavy of course... although some places like Phillips were a surprise to me. Eight from Wales, two from England and two from Italy. Yes Italy, one from each of the rest.

Italy have improved markedly. England look ordinary if you can stop Foden and Ashton as both Scotland and Ireland showed - they're really lacking experience in depth. Can Ireland pull it together for enough matches? Can Scotland build on their good finish? Will Wales suddenly click - sadly I think not but they've got a surprising depth in some places. France are... well French. They could click at the right time or they could fall apart.

I'm still not looking outside the Southern Hemisphere for the winners, and I'm thinking the ABs at the moment.

Northern Hemisphere winner? Fat chance

We're half way through the Six Nations. For most of these sides there are 5 matches before the RWC starts in New Zealand. (Hopefully including Christchurch, a city I didn't particularly like but which is suffering massively after a second series of earthquakes and after-shocks in a few months and didn't deserve that.)

The predominant feature so far? The side that makes the fewer mistakes wins. You can, of course, argue that's always the case in a rugby match, but it's not usually the predominant feature of an international series. Take the last Tri-Nations. I think it's probably true that the side that made the fewest errors won, but the predominant feature was the speed of the All-Blacks at the breakdown in both attack and defence and their ability to convert their pressure, speed and fitness into victories. The other feature was a rather lacklustre Bok display, probably not helped by starting off getting hammered in NZ twice and then travelling to Australia and getting beaten there on the back of their Kiwi pain.

But look at today's results. England beat France, but despite Les Bleus making a right pig's ear of just about every scoring opportunity with ball in band, the scores were close because the English kept making mistakes and giving away both scoring and possession opportunities. Italy lost to Wales in part because the Welsh defence proved capable of keeping the Italians from the try-line except when sheer brute power was enough (I'm not sure that's something to be proud of, Italy's backs are not noted for their creativity in rugby), in part because Hook and Shane are world class and flashed together for moments of brilliance, but also because they kept making mistakes - as did their foes.

Two weeks ago France didn't so much win as Ireland conspired to lose by playing badly. That was better than Scotland who conspired to lose by not playing at all. The week before against France Scotland possibly played the most creative rugby of the teams, but conspired with the French not to bother defending. It was a good, high-scoring match because of that, but France were just better and managed to score more points - helped in no small part because all their tries came directly from Scottish mistakes.

So, facing up against Australia, New Zealand, South Africa... if they don't play out of their skins compared to this we might see some massive scores in favour of the South. England, maybe, have the hoodoo over Australia. But so close to home, in a RWC, and with plenty of chances for Robbie Deans to sort out his best front row I'm not so sure. Because if it's fewer errors, the Southern Hemisphere sides will be a class apart.

Reflecting on the November internationals.

Because this time next year some nation will be basking in the glory of being the World Champions of Rugby, this Autumn series has been very closely observed by the pundits.

And what can this amateur pundit tell you?

Well, New Zealand are the favourites to lift the trophy on home soil. Mind you, they are normally the favourites and don't lift it - proof that everyone raises their game against the AB and you need some luck too to win the tournament. But they have the skill, the depth in most positions, the belief and home-field advantage.

Beyond that? Not sure. In alphabetical order of the "big" sides:

Argentina maybe don't deserve to be here. More than any side they're looking old and one-dimensional. Three years ago they had a great side but retirements, age and playing in France have seemingly removed that. If they don't play well they might not get out of the pool stages this year.

Australia are a team that is close to getting it right. They are a year or so on from England in that building process, getting it right more often than not. They still mess up - England for example - but they should be a real threat. Semifinalists at least, and a reasonable chance at lifting the trophy.

England are a team that is building. If everything works for them and their opponents have an off-day they can beat good sides - Australia take note. If their opponents bully them and keep the ball, they can lose to experienced sides not playing very well - South Africa for example. They are firing, on this November's evidence less than half the time at the moment. That will probably improve a bit by RWC time. They could go all the way - they'll be a bit further along by next year - but they could crash out in the quarter finals too, and that's my guess.

France are in a "because we are French" place right now. Some key injuries hampered them against Australia and their strength in depth is oddly questionable but you never know. They should storm out of their group stages and probably into the semis.

Ireland are a team where it appears, more and more, their stars are past their prime. Their big names can still produce moments of magic, but it's moments whereas last year it was minutes, 2 years ago it was most of the game. If they get lucky those moments of magic could turn a game still but you think it's a matter of luck whereas in 2008/9 it could have been a matter of merit. Getting past the quarter finals seems unlikely.

Scotland are also unpredictable. But, they will have the pool stages to knock the rust off and then they're dangerous as they proved against the Boks. Given recent results, if they play to their potential, quarter finals, maybe, outside bet, semis.

South Africa are hard to judge. They have a number of players getting old, but unlike Ireland's old boys most of them are still performing most of the time. Another year and will they still be doing that? It's hard to see Matfield and Botha getting too old in that time, and they have some younger players starting to slot in and some talented players to return from injury. Smit seems to make them gel and if he can be playing well enough to be there, they could be dangerous. Semi-finals are a must you think, finals are reachable, defending their title might be a match too far though.

Wales are hard to judge too. They are clearly, badly, lacking in strength in depth. I wonder if the magic of Gatland and Edwards is getting a bit stale too. But a lucky run with no injuries and some confidence beating Italy, Ireland and maybe Scotland in the 6N, England and France could fall too - maybe England in the summer are more likely than in Feb - and they played well enough for parts of November to do well. Quarter finals should be achieved. Possibly the semis.

Everyone else? Sorry... partly because our coverage isn't great but I didn't see much by which to judge. Samoa could do nicely, Fiji too, Italy could improve with a year of Magners etc. behind them.

My prediction:

New Zealand
Australia
South Africa
France

for the top 4 in that order.

England, Wales, Scotland, Ireland as the losing quarter finalists.

Last weekend of North v South

So who is up or down after the last three weeks?

New Zealand and South Africa up you'd think. Both have some question marks around the depth of their squad and fitting the newer players in to the mix. On that score I think the AB have an edge. Their big change around came last and against Wales - a weakened Wales but still a Wales with 7 Lions in it. They struggled, but won. South Africa really struggled against Italy, and whilst Italy are a far better team than 10 years ago, IN SA they should have handled it a lot better.

Scotland, although they didn't play this week, overjoyed. They beat Argentina twice IN Argentina, and the next week the Pumas stuffed France. Result.

In the "some positives" group you have England, Wales and Australia. England finally beat a big S. Hemisphere side away. Losing to the Maori will have taken the gloss off it though. Australia will be similarly upset by the loss to England despite the circumstance and a lacklustre performance against Ireland. Wales lost twice, but certainly improved and look to have gained valuable experience and comfort playing in New Zealand. Argentina just scrape in here. They were seriously looking a shadow of their former selves against Scotland, but looked great against France.

Those in trouble - France and Ireland. No wins on tour. Seriously not good at this remove from the world cup.