Black day

Well, for many reasons. Let's try and take the matches in order.

The All Blacks beat Romania. Not as well as I'd expected, but still convincingly. They'll be a bit worried about how well the Romanian's disrupted the scrum, and/or the scrum half, although the second string 7 and 8 might have contributed to that. Chris Masoe had a good game otherwise, but when Richie MacCaw came on for 20 minutes, normally a powerhouse for the whole 80 after all, god did he look spectacular.

There were quite a few mistakes, but AB rugby often has mistakes. It's odd for a side that does so well from mistakes/turn overs that they're relatively happy to make them and give the ball up. Says something for their (justified) confidence in their defence, and ability to get the ball back. Thorne, for all he had a good game, is clearly there as a utility player, across blind-side and lock. Romania might not be the best team in the world, but at line out time he looked rather anonymous. That said, having him as an extra tackler around the park was pretty positive, but it's a balance thing. You'd expect the ABs to threaten the Romanian line out, and they didn't really, with two of Jack, Williams and Robertson you'd have thought they would, even as they lost the mobility around the park.

Australia looked out of shape. Perhaps the rain helped, but they sputtered and stuttered. OK it was only a pool game and quite a few second choice folks in key places, but it was still not great. I can't see them playing that badly next week, but if they do, England could win. Particularly problematic, their scrum creaked against Canada. Against CANADA, when the English scrum stood up well against the Boks, could be a disaster in the making. Mind you, the aussie line out ruled.

Kudos to Fiji. Being Welsh, it hurts, and there are a number of places we should have done better, but Fiji played a blinder, and at least we went out in a great game rather than in a damp squib. Will Gareth go? Apparently not without being pushed. He asked to be judged on his RWC performance - the judgement? Not good enough. Sure, being a manager/coach it's not all his fault, but the combinations, selection choices and style of play in broad terms, if not every choice on the field are his. Why does he want Wales to play structured power rugby, it's not really what they've ever done, why try to change it? Why choose Hook and Shane Williams if you do? Wales won the grand slam on pace, passion and flair. Tempering that a little isn't necessarily a bad thing, adding a plan B, but it has looked more and more like he wants to knock it out of Welsh rugby rather than add an alternative. Sorry, I'd be pushing if I was the WRU.

Scotland and Italy was close, closer than I'd expected actually. You'd have to say the better team won, even if it was a dull, grinding, bad tempered game. A game where ill discipline really made the difference - shades of England v France in years gone by. I'm still putting my money on 4 Southern Hemisphere semi finalists, which means Argentina get through as group winners (I think they'll win, Ireland have lost it too much), and Argentina will just chew up and spit out the Scots on today's evidence. They won't be as likely to give away silly penalties, and they will be more able to threaten with a variety of plans than poor old "big boot and nothing else" Pez. Even Rob Andrew at the height of 10-man rugby showed more option taking than Pez.

Tomorrow - only one match that matters isn't there?

France really ought to rack up the 5 points, South Africa's first choice team, ditto, and both will do so with time to spare. Ireland v Argentina? A team flying high, full of confidence and a team that looks fragile and out of sorts? Teams that are actually close on the world rankings too? Look how close Tonga came, how well Fiji did too. Confidence works wonders, and Ireland don't have it, unless Argentina really blow it early to hand it back to the Irish, ignominy awaits.