(some of the) Big NH sides starting to fire

France fired against Namibia last weekend, Wales fired against Japan last night.

In a normal year, a normal world cup, this wouldn't be news. But Ireland and England have failed to fire, Italy and Scotland have looked OK. Wales even fired, in patches, against Australia, the ONLY Northern Hemisphere side to shine against significant opposition so far, even if too little, too late.

Can Ireland produce such a shocking performance again? Well, yes - remember squeaking home over Georgia followed a lack-lustre performance against Namibia, albeit one with a bonus point win. Something is stopping the men from the Emerald Isle firing as a unit. France could always freeze again, but you've got to say that this game is theirs to lose, before the start, rather than Ireland's to win.

Can England produce a performance against Samoa? On paper England ought to win. They're going to have a new 9, 10, 12, 13 combination though, and unless England sort themselves out it could be a very dour match in which you'd have to say Samoan passion, self-belief and stung warrior pride after last week could do the job. England might dominate possession, but we've seen the All Blacks, and (sadly) Georgia prove that the team that dominates possession and territory doesn't necessarily win.

Don't believe me, look at the stats - the ABs often win matches with less than 50% of territory and possession - scoring clinically from turn overs lets you do that, because they have the ball for several phases until you turn them over, and you score. Very fast, and often long range. The stats show the other team apparently in the ascendancy. I'd have to say that of the two sides, I'd believe both that Samoa will make more turn over ball, and they're far more likely to score from it.

Scotland won't have a chance to shine - they're playing the ABs, but, finally two of the Northern Hemisphere sides have really shown they can do it, and do it well.

My predictions:

England to still crash out, I think Samoa and maybe Tonga can both do it over this England side and see them slide right down the world rankings. I know which side I'm rooting for, and humiliation of being the first defending champions to fail to get out of the pool stages, excellent!

France to beat Ireland. Argentina too. France then lose to the ABs, Argentina beat... probably Scotland. Neither side looks that good, but Scotland look OK, Italy are stuttering.

Australia, New Zealand, Argentina and South Africa to be the semi-finals. The biggest doubt there, oddly (and with my heart perhaps), South Africa. If Wales forget structured rugby and try to take the Bokke on they'll probably lose. If they try to front up in a physical confrontation they'll lose for sure. Charvis, Popham and Martin Williams can feed ball to the backs, probably enough against South Africa still, and if Wales let their backs sparkle and run riot, they can do it. It's high risk, but, much though I'd love it not to be true, if Wales play that way they could get stuffed (against the number 2 side and joint RWC favourites that's not a disaster though), but they could produce an upset, and it's the only way they can do it.