Celtic nation woes

Wales and Ireland played today. One side won, the other lost.

The side that lost played poorly for half a match, and well, brilliantly in patches, for the other half. If they'd managed to string the whole 80 minutes together, they could have won. As it is, Wales losing to Australia is hugely disappointing, but not a disaster. Everyone knows what they need to do in the quarter-finals against South Africa, and they played well enough that it's pretty clear they will be there. Whether they can do it or not is another matter, but they know what they need to do, and they've proved, against top flight opposition, they can do it in patches. Credit to Australia, they do better in the RWC than at other times, and it showed again. Their scrum, however, was atrocious, against even bigger scrummaging packs than Wales (who are pretty good and looked good today) they'll get taken apart there one can't help but feel. Of course England, Tonga or Samoa won't complain, and probably, on recent showing won't even challenge them there.

The side that won played poorly for the whole match, and must be relieved that they were playing Georgia rather than Argentina or France. They'd have been thumped, deservedly, off the pitch by a fitter team. As it was, there was a held-up ball over the try line that the video referee couldn't see grounded (and almost certainly wasn't in fairness) that would have handed out a shock defeat. Not a surprise like Argentina beating France, a shock, a genuine shock. Federer knocked out in the first round of a grand slam kind of shock. The luck of the Irish was with them tonight - two of the three attempted drop goals by the Georgians were close, if they'd gone the other side of the uprights, Ireland would have lost by two points.

My earlier post about the minnows needs revisiting. Georgian probably won't make a 16-strong World Cup if that's what the IRB in it's "wisdom" decides for the next one. Shame, stupid, let's hope they nobble the Irish vote and look at this match and decide the minnows really do have something to add. And bad luck Georgia. To this neutral, you looked the better side throughout. If Ireland don't improve in leaps and bounds, France, yes France, Ireland were that bad, and Argentina will be facing the All Blacks and the runners up from pool C.

Would you really bet against all Southern Hemisphere semi-finalists? England won't get through, quite possibly not to the quarter-finals, but certainly not out of them, so that gives us the Aussies. Wales could beat South Africa, but the odds are against it. France v All Blacks, only one winner you'd say, and Argentina should beat Scotland or Italy quite comfortably in France.

It just might be worth a penny or two. I wonder what the odds are?!