Monday, December 29, 2008

Sic Transit MMVIII

What an odd year it's been.

New Zealand reappointed Graeme Henry, and let Robbie Deans escape to coach "West Island" (or Australia as it's more commonly known). In the short term that has proven to be a good choice, in the longer term, who knows? Robbie Deans record in Super-14 suggests he's a brilliant coach, and 4 years to work with the Wallabies should let him weave his magic somewhat. However, the All Blacks bounced back from the disappointment and, with the odd hiccough, smashed through the Tri-Nations in convincing style, won a Grand Slam on their November tour - and for the first time in their history played test matches on 5 consecutive weekends, winning all 5 (they beat Australia in Hong Kong as a Bledisloe extra before their grand slam started).

Wales went from ignominy and exciting the RWC before the quarter finals to winning a 6N grand slam too. It wasn't just a flash in the pan either - come the November tests they were the only team that lived with New Zealand (albeit for only the first half), South Africa (which could and probably should have been a win for Wales), and were the only NH side to win, beating Australia (although France pushed them damn close too).

England, happily for me, went the other way. From a surprise appearance and a close-run thing in the RWC final, they slumped, spectacularly - mid-table in the 6N, thumped in all three November internationals against recognised sides, and to be honest struggling against a scratch team from the Pacific Islands. It would be interesting to see the Pacific Islanders and maybe Argentina incorporated into a SH five nations (maybe the penta-nations to keep the naming convention) because the Pacific Islanders have the talent, but not the chances to play together to make a solid international team.

The build-up to the 2011 RWC has started too, with preliminary rounds being played already, and the draw for the pools having being made.

Then there's the ELVs. The SH sides have played under 3 different sets of laws this year - their early version of the ELVs, the old laws for the June/July tours, and the IRB's global ELVs for the November tours. Oh, and in the case of NZ and Australia, courtesy of that Hong Kong test, the current SH ELVs which are the IRB ones with offsides at tackles, free kicks rather than penalties and another tweak.

My take? I think the IRB and NH old fogeys need to be shot. Their version of the laws, combined with the new interpretation that the English referees in particular have fallen in love with to the point of insanity, has stifled the game in the NH, particularly England, into a largely sterile contest. The SH by contrast seems to be producing even fitter, more aware players, widening the gulf between the two hemispheres (with the exception of Wales where the players play the game with verve and passion even as the WRU officials try desperately to stifle it, but nothing new there!). The SH contests are also producing rugby that's more fun to watch - that isn't supposed to be the aim of it, but if you lose your audiences, you lose your game very quickly, certainly as the big money spectacle it's become.

And finally, a rant that isn't new - big money in the English and French game.

If you look away from England, France and to a lesser extent Italy, there are small numbers of foreign players (as low as 0 in Australia, maybe a dozen in all of NZ and SA). The Magners League has more foreign players, but there are still strong cores of each of the teams from Ireland/Wales/Scotland although most teams have a few overseas international players. But if you come to France and England, the situation changes - just about every team has a truck load of internationals. In an earlier post I wondered how many of the England-qualified players would make a premiership top-XV. I *still* think the number approximates to 0. In fact, I think they'd struggle to get many players in a second-XV.

There was a comment in an analysis program I watched, which said that world-class players are those in the top three players in their position in the world. I think top three is probably harsh, so let's say top 5.

If you restrict yourself to players still eligible for international selection (so no Kiwis playing abroad except Carter who is on sabbatical), who would come from England in your top 5? There are NH players that make my top 5 - Martyn Williams, Andy Powell, Lee Byrne, Dwayne Peel (if he gets back to top form based on his end of year performance), Hook, Henson, Mike Blair, Shane Williams, O'Connel, Jenkins, and normally I'd list some French players here, and I think I should, but I'm lacking names and inspiration. But England players? Forget it, at least this year. Next year... with more experience Delon Armitage could make it, Flood or Cipriani might, but not this year.

But, looking at that list, perhaps it's no surprise that Wales are the best NH side we've got - there's 8 top-5 in the world players in that list. There are others lurking around too - Halfpenny might make it in next year. The other Welsh props aren't bad, just not top five and so on.

Predictions for next year? You'll have to wait a day or two for them I'm afraid.

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Blog changes, 6N predictions and more

First, if you actually visit the blog (you do actually look at it don't you?) you will see some new gadgets on the side from LocateTV.com. They should update automatically to show you the next live rugby on TV, the next Rugby Club and the next French Rugby on Eurosport.

Six Nations: Assuming they play like they did in November:
Wales
France
Ireland
Scotland
England
Italy

Of course these things are not set in stone - injuries and the like might change the teams, England might suddenly wake up and start playing, who knows what Lievremont will do with the French... but that's my guess.

Over on Planet Rugby they ran a team of November. I don't propose to do that, but it was interesting to note that Lee Byrne and Shane Williams forced their way in to the top 15. I'm not 100% sure of this... but I certainly agree they should have been in the mix. Andy Powell just missed out, but was in the mix too - bright times for Wales!

Finally, we all know rugby is a team sport. However, the Baa-baas v Australia really highlighted that. On one side you have George Smith, one of the four greatest fetchers in rugby. On the other side you have Ritchie McCaw and Shalk Burger, both also in the top 4 (Martyn Williams being the other one). Who wins the battle of the breakdown? Well actually that varied, but who won the war? Smith outplayed the other two because he had a side that reacted well, they didn't and they didn't really work well with each other. I'm sure given time they could learn to, but they really didn't do that well together without the practise. Frightening thought really.