I should say, before I dive into this, that what I'm doing is picking essentially an A and a B squad - 2 full teams and so 30 players. I suspect the Lions squad will be bigger and have a different balance - more forwards than backs. In most places there will just be a group of players, e.g. four centres, but sometimes there will be indications of starting players and sometimes discussion of who's not there or more than one for the remaining spot. That will be where I think the choice of the player depends on the way they want to play, and Iain McGeechan is a far better coach than me!
Props:
G. Jenkins (starter)
A. Jones
D. Jones
Here the mix becomes awkward, but I'd probably take Julian White. Sheridan will be too easy for the Boks to counter, Ireland's scrum creaked too much up front. I don't remember the Scottish props which isn't a good sign!
Hookers:
Mears
Flannery
Locks:
Paul O'Connell (starter, possibly captain)
Alan Wyn Jones (starter)
Gough, Shaw, Donacha O'Callaghan are fighting for the other two places. Probably (just) Gough and DOC - Shaw doesn't offer enough extras around the pitch, and DOC and POC have a good working relationship.
Back Rows:
The Welsh and Irish 6 Nations back rows please!
Martyn Williams is the only starter from this lot.
Powell is probably an impact sub.
Possible surprises in here: Worsely might get a shout, although he's rather too similar to the Bok loose forwards to challenge them. Stephan Armitage might just get a look in - he offers something rather different.
Scrum Half:
Phillips
Leamy
Danny Care was close, but that stupid yellow card counts against him - scrum halves are too important to do that.
Fly Half:
S. Jones (starter)
Ronan O'Gara
Hook, Flood and Cipriani all miss out here, two for not enough international time, one for not being good enough. This could be a "surprise" area - if the coaches decide not to confront the Matfield-Botha axis in the line out ROG might miss out and Cipriani (who plays for Geech at Wasps after all) sneak in, although I rate both Flood and Hook ahead of him. Nicky Robinson as a real outside shout - not in the Wales mix, but running Cardiff Blues nicely in the EDF final and HEC quarter final.
Centres:
BOD (starter and MY choice for captain)
Shanklin
Roberts (Roberts really gets in on the mix and partnership with Shanklin, plus a good EDF final)
Then there's a few in mix: Flutey, but I'm not sure about his defence if the pack struggles, Horan, Tindall at a stretch. Flutey on the Wasps ticket just.
Wings:
S. Williams (starts)
Bowe (starts)
T. Evans
The fourth wing spot is between Halfpenny (also a good EDF Final), Ojo and maybe Sackey. Probably Ojo.
Ful-back:
Byrne (starter, outside shout as captain)
D. Armitage.
Breakdown by nation:
England: 5
Ireland: 10
Scotland: 1
Wales: 14
No surprise there's a lot of Irish players.
Even I'm rather surprised at the predominance of Welsh players - but Wales played essentially a second squad against Italy and played France at their brilliant best, and could have denied Ireland the Grand Slam with the last kick. England were gifted 21 points against Italy and played France at their absolute worst. Points difference tells lies sometimes in a short season! Wales finished fourth, but the depth of the squad and that narrow loss suggests they're better than they look. Simultaneously, although winning the slam is a great achievement, Ireland didn't really do it as a team, they had a few players really shine at the right moments - all of who have been picked - but the rest of their side looked like supporting actors for the stars.
That might just be justifying my pro-Welsh bias, but I don't think so.
