Sunday, November 28, 2010

Reflecting on the November internationals.

Because this time next year some nation will be basking in the glory of being the World Champions of Rugby, this Autumn series has been very closely observed by the pundits.

And what can this amateur pundit tell you?

Well, New Zealand are the favourites to lift the trophy on home soil. Mind you, they are normally the favourites and don't lift it - proof that everyone raises their game against the AB and you need some luck too to win the tournament. But they have the skill, the depth in most positions, the belief and home-field advantage.

Beyond that? Not sure. In alphabetical order of the "big" sides:

Argentina maybe don't deserve to be here. More than any side they're looking old and one-dimensional. Three years ago they had a great side but retirements, age and playing in France have seemingly removed that. If they don't play well they might not get out of the pool stages this year.

Australia are a team that is close to getting it right. They are a year or so on from England in that building process, getting it right more often than not. They still mess up - England for example - but they should be a real threat. Semifinalists at least, and a reasonable chance at lifting the trophy.

England are a team that is building. If everything works for them and their opponents have an off-day they can beat good sides - Australia take note. If their opponents bully them and keep the ball, they can lose to experienced sides not playing very well - South Africa for example. They are firing, on this November's evidence less than half the time at the moment. That will probably improve a bit by RWC time. They could go all the way - they'll be a bit further along by next year - but they could crash out in the quarter finals too, and that's my guess.

France are in a "because we are French" place right now. Some key injuries hampered them against Australia and their strength in depth is oddly questionable but you never know. They should storm out of their group stages and probably into the semis.

Ireland are a team where it appears, more and more, their stars are past their prime. Their big names can still produce moments of magic, but it's moments whereas last year it was minutes, 2 years ago it was most of the game. If they get lucky those moments of magic could turn a game still but you think it's a matter of luck whereas in 2008/9 it could have been a matter of merit. Getting past the quarter finals seems unlikely.

Scotland are also unpredictable. But, they will have the pool stages to knock the rust off and then they're dangerous as they proved against the Boks. Given recent results, if they play to their potential, quarter finals, maybe, outside bet, semis.

South Africa are hard to judge. They have a number of players getting old, but unlike Ireland's old boys most of them are still performing most of the time. Another year and will they still be doing that? It's hard to see Matfield and Botha getting too old in that time, and they have some younger players starting to slot in and some talented players to return from injury. Smit seems to make them gel and if he can be playing well enough to be there, they could be dangerous. Semi-finals are a must you think, finals are reachable, defending their title might be a match too far though.

Wales are hard to judge too. They are clearly, badly, lacking in strength in depth. I wonder if the magic of Gatland and Edwards is getting a bit stale too. But a lucky run with no injuries and some confidence beating Italy, Ireland and maybe Scotland in the 6N, England and France could fall too - maybe England in the summer are more likely than in Feb - and they played well enough for parts of November to do well. Quarter finals should be achieved. Possibly the semis.

Everyone else? Sorry... partly because our coverage isn't great but I didn't see much by which to judge. Samoa could do nicely, Fiji too, Italy could improve with a year of Magners etc. behind them.

My prediction:

New Zealand
Australia
South Africa
France

for the top 4 in that order.

England, Wales, Scotland, Ireland as the losing quarter finalists.