More on France

I caught the last 20 minutes or so of the Top 14 final yesterday. The array of international talent on display was stunning.

Over half of the Toulouse team, and just under half of the Clemont team had played in the Rugby World Cup. Not all of them for France - Kelleher being one obvious example at scrum half for Toulouse, but with a rough count from memory there were about 20 of France's RWC squad in the squads on show at home.

Whilst this made for a high octane (although not massively high scoring) and very competitive match, you've got to think that even though not all of those players would probably make the current team (retirement, form, coach's preference), it's little wonder that France looked rather poor in Australia. In fact, what is amazing is that they managed, apart from 10 minutes or so, to compete against Australia at home. Australia did deserve to win based on what I saw, but if that intercept try hadn't been scored and if France had scored one try with their 5 minutes camped 5m away from the Australia line - both important ifs, but not unlikely ones - 27-20 would probably have been a fair result and pretty achievable. That's a fair degree of testament to the strength in depth of French Rugby.

An interesting quote

"You will never get a bad All Black team. At their worst they will still be the best in the world."

The person making this statement? The coach of the current RWC holders, Peter de Villiers.

I find it fascinating because, living as I do in England we had, despite the clearly different facts on the pitch, fours years of "world champions" and there is still an arrogance that demands England be the #1 side in the world.

The facts suggest that they're not, although they do well in the RWC format. New Zealand, for whatever reason, don't do so well in RWCs but it's pretty likely that for most of the time between RWCs they will be, possibly by some margin, the #1 team in the rankings.

Whilst de Villiers might be talking up the opposition before the match, what he's saying is pretty much the truth as well - and it's so nice to see a side that can claim, legitimately, to be "world champions" not doing anything to rest on their laurels.

Australia 34 -13 France

Well, it just goes to show how sportsmen can make seeming idiots of prognosticators at first sight.

I will admit to having missed the first half, a girl's got to sleep sometimes, and Sky had been lying about where they were broadcasting it, so I taped a load of golf instead of rugby - thanks Sky!

But, really it sounds from the commentary that I didn't miss much, it ended 6-6 and was scrappy as anything.

In the second half really Australia only threatened for about 10 minutes, but they scored a hatful of tries, plus there was an interception try when the French tried to throw the ball about to get back into the match. The Australian scrum stood up OK to the French, but at ruck and maul seemed to get the upper hand most times. Inexperienced back row vs. Waugh and Smith is not a fair contest, and whilst Elsom is not in the same league of experience he was there all the time too.

Robbie Deans will be impressed with his team's defense, there were a couple of periods of concerted pressure, pretty much right on the line, where Australia kept the French at bay. It's hard to be 100% certain of how it might have been different, but I couldn't help but wonder if France, with different forwards and different backs would have played those phases differently and scored some points - but then we'd have had a totally different game. I think, to be honest, what showed was that the forwards didn't really trust the backs, and whilst it's not good form to pick out a single player for making mistakes, there were a couple of potentially good, one great, moves that fell apart with a spilled ball.

Next week - well France are still France and wildly unpredictable. But I think Australia will feel, as a team, that they've got what it takes to stop the French scoring, and that they can score against them. One thing that does need to be said though, Plaisson was the only try scorer for Les Bleus. He's tiny and he went straight through Mortlock in a way that few players ever do. If the French manage to be a bit faster and more precise, they do have the weapons to score.

Australia v France

This will be an odd match I suspect. France are definitely under-strength - loads of the regular giants of French rugby are at home given the top 14 season has still not (quite) finished - semi-finals last weekend, finals this weekend, so no players from Stade Francais, Toulouse etc. That's a LOT of big names absent.

French sides don't always travel well either, although around in Europe France don't seem to mind in most years, but this is hardly a vintage French side and the wheels could just come off.

But, at the same time this is France. Those mavericks that despite a terrible RWC at home, rose to defeat (with a lot of help from the referee and linesmen) the All Blacks. That 4 RWCs ago again rose to beat the All Blacks, convincingly. No matter how weak they appear, we all know they could do it again.

Then there is the scrum. It is a truism of French rugby that they love to scrum - but it's true, and it's almost certainly the foundation of their most sublime backs play - the fact that their forwards tend to mince up and suck in opposing forwards. This may not be the most experienced French pack, but they will still scrummage to a high level. Australia and the scrum... well we all know how suspect that can be, and although Deans may work wonders over the next 3-and-a-bit years, he's not had time to do it yet. France will almost certainly have the upper hand there, possibly enough to let their banks cut loose, and if they gel, they are certainly good enough to slice through just about any defence.

As always with France a real prediction is impossible - it depends on which France turn up. I think it's unlikely the great France will - too young, too far from home, too tired at the end of the season, to little time together will all contribute to that, but there is still that chance. Let's say about 16% that the great France will show and rip Robbie Deans' preparations to shreds - by 20 points or more. The other 84% - Australia to win, although not that convincingly: they will have the upper hand in some places, but their weakness at the scrum will stop them running away as convincingly as they might.

Kia kumite

Oh dear, oh dear.

If Hodgson was pulled for "unacceptable at test level" tackling, why was there a backline left for England? 44-12 to the All Blacks, 5 tries, all but one rather attractively scored and the fifth one still scored by slicing through England's inadequate defensive line like it wasn't there.

The studio guests tried to make a case for England's positives. But, England blew (in one case dropping over the line level of blew) 2 more opportunities for tries and I would still say that the score flatters England. England had moments when they kept the ball, but then gave the game away with stupid penalties and poor handling on a regular basis, especially in the first half. Although they kept the ball in hand a bit better, England looked ponderous in attack, absolutely lacking in pace and inspiration, only scoring from a quick tap penalty for one of their tries and from sustained pressure that finally, after about 500 phases, found a small hole in the AB defence. When you point out that the ABs lost Ali Williams after about 10 minutes and their line out suffered thereafter, and McCaw after about 20 minutes and their turn over rate didn't really suffer thereafter, if sums up the difference in class. When you add the 5 tries to the mix, well, that's it.

The scrums were rock-solid for the ABs including wheeling one and disrupting several so the ball for England was rarely good. The tackling was frankly brutal. You might see a picture of Tait covered in blood on the news - that's from a totally legal, albeit very hard hit, and it really summed up the difference.

The All Blacks do have things to work on - Lauaki had a bit of a tendency to drop the ball, McCaw's injury seemed fairly bad, but there was no news of what happened and he could be back for the Tri-Nations), and as already mentioned without Williams the AB line out suffered - the loss of that primary target meant everyone else suffered a bit more. But, you would have to say that the All Blacks came out of this with many positives and some areas to work on.

Graham Henry pulled a few rabbits, metaphorically speaking, out of the hat. Conrad Smith has real competition for his shirt, Kahui played a blinder - he made that tackle that left Tait bloody and scored a try. Who was Jerry Collins? Thompson had a couple of jittery bits, but otherwise played a blinder, and was only denied a try by a questionable call from the TMO (albeit a very hard call in fairness).

England came out of it with a shattered look and I bet they're pleased they're leaving tomorrow, I bet some wish they were leaving tonight to be spared the press in the morning. You have to wonder what Johnson can do. Where can he go? England's ultra-defensive line-up were shredded. Their youth have been demoralised and outplayed, their old hands rarely held those hands up.

There was great skill shown - but only by one side. Worryingly for the rest of the world, Carter looked like a star, but he didn't shine alone. 10, 12, 13, 14, 15 all looked wonderful, and 11 didn't do a bad job either, he just got used less so didn't shine, but he looked good enough. The pack away from the line outs all looked great too, and outplayed their opposites. Poor Ellis is the only person not to get a mention for looking great. He, like, 11, played a thoroughly sound game, he chivied forwards, fed backs as required, and never looked in trouble. He didn't really need to spark the world alight because everyone around him was doing that today.

McCaw and naughty England, SA v Italy, Second Test etc.

I appreciate that the players have a close up view of what goes on in rucks, mauls and scrums that we don't get - and that the referees don't get too. But you do have to wonder sometimes - Northern Hemisphere sides, particularly England, have been moaning that Richie McCaw cheats all the time for the last 7 years or so. Do they honestly believe he mesmerises the referee so he can get away with stuff that they can't?

I will concede that referees can have bad games, but bad games every time they referee McCaw throughout his first class and international career? Please, do me a favour, assume I can think. Although I have a story about wingeing Aussies that would destroy the wingeing Poms stereotype forever, you do have to think this is what's going on in this case. McCaw didn't have it all his own way last weekend, but still the management and now the players are saying "He's such a cheat." Yes, again. What crap.

Whilst we're at it, I'm not sure that the big penalty that was given against him, that had Barnes baying for a yellow card, was correct. I'm not an expert in the laws, so I could be wrong, but he was done for offside. However, he was a tackler - he'd clearly been involved in the tackle, gone to ground as had the player he tackled. There was a second AB in the tackle, but that doesn't matter. A ruck hadn't formed (a ruck requires additional players from both sides make contact over the ball) and as the tackler he is entitled to play the ball from wherever he likes. Perhaps I've got the laws wrong, perhaps I didn't see clearly, but oh well. Over on SA referees someone else asked the question - and Jonathan Kaplan thought McCaw might have had a point too (last question). I'd like to say that although I think the decision was wrong, that's not to say I thought Owen had a bad game overall. He rarely makes mistakes, he certainly plays what he sees (right or wrong, can you ask for more?) and although I think he did make a mistake this time, we're all entitled to, every now and again.



In the meantime, it appears 4 England players are "helping the police with their enquiries" about a major incident in their hotel in Auckland. Oops! Pot, kettle... bending the laws on the field of play one thing, bending the laws of the land - oh dear.

Second test prediction - Despite several changes to the AB line-up and the introduction of a surprising amount of "fresh blood" NZ to win comfortably. Not as comfortably as if they'd gone in with the same side, but England are certainly weakened by the loss of Sheridan, their offence is weakened by the loss of Hodgson, and although their mid-field defence is strengthened, NZ can and will attack from enough different places and different angles that it won't really matter.

Poor Italy... Italy don't, generally, travel well - look at their Six Nations results. South Africa are currently making a better fist of defending the RWC-holders tag than England ever did, and have fielded a strong looking side. South Africa at home are always a challenge, and this will be a challenge too far, probably much too far, for Italy. This could easily be a 50+ point margin of victory, and it could be a 70+ point margin. South Africa will score, and their line won't be threatened unless Italy have found a better number 10 (or the 6N incumbent has improved his skills markedly).

SA v Wales

Really all the news on this is about Wales.

Wales, I thought, were well beaten but not disastrous last week. This week, the scoreline really flattered SA (a try as the last move of the match helped there). Don't get me wrong, SA deserved to win - but 30-21 would have been a fairer score than 37-21 was.

Wales were much, much better. The tackled better, they looked to attack better, they handled better. They deserved the times that they were in the lead - patches either side of half-time. Gatland and Edwards must be feeling much happier, as must Welsh Rugby (or Rugbi Cymraeg if you prefer). Losing to the #1 team in the world and current world cup holders when they're at home isn't a disaster. Some of those amazing All Black teams - the 2005 squad that stuffed the Lions and everyone else, lost in SA that year if memory serves - it can be that hard.

The other thing to ask is quite simple: Is Shane Williams the best winger in the world on current form? There are certainly many contenders for that crown - Sivivatu is the one we're not going to see Williams up against at the moment, but in this year Williams has outplayed all the big Northern Hemisphere wingers, he's just left Bryan Habana looking ordinary, and he's scored one of the most amazing tries you'll ever see. The first jink around a tackle, well any international winger that doesn't think he can just run through the cover defence would have got around that. But Williams then ran down into the corner, where there were no less than 4 SA defenders, some coming forward, some across. A couple of quick steps and Shane was over the line and dotting the ball down before they laid a finger on him. It sounds implausible if not impossible, but he really did take a couple of quick steps and turn all four of them inside out at once.

I haven't really watched Ireland get beat by Australia yet, although I've seen a few clips - Australia really have problems in the scrum, but they also have a belief in themselves and their new coach that will see them improve I'm sure. I just suspect that this year they'll get too pushed around by both the All Black and Bokke packs and not do so well in the Tri-Nations. Ireland must be spitting, and going home after a poor tour. England have started moderately badly, and seem to have lost confidence in the only recognised #10 they've taken with them. Oops. If they can play for the whole 80 minutes as they played for the first 20 this morning they might do well, but you have to think that the All Blacks will know what the pace is and cope better next week. England could face a real drubbing, and against a side that is full of talent but is very new together too. If that happens, Wales might be the only side coming home feeling like they've had a reasonable tour - a tour in which, although they lost, they've blooded some new talent, they've rediscovered their pride in the jersey and they've demonstrated they really do have the best winger in the world.

England smacked in the face

This was a game in three parts really.

For the first 20 minutes England were full of huff, puff and effort. They were competing, winning even, at the break-down, in the line-out but they weren't really able to pull away - in fact at the end of that time it was 6-6 and and despite the seeming superiority where it normally matters, the All Blacks didn't really look flustered.

Then came the next 55 minutes. NZ stepped up about 3 gears, adjusted on the pitch to what the English were up to, coped and overwhelmed England. Not at every phase - England won line-out ball of New Zealand often enough to say it's an area where they're stronger. Rees kept competing with McCaw, and kept the turn-over count close, but the timing and position of the turn overs was never in his favour - England turned the ball over in or just outside their 22 several times and only once were they not punished by conceding a score - usually a try.

The last five minutes, in fairness belonged to England again. The All Blacks took their foot off a bit, and Donald (impressive though he is) didn't dominate in the same way that Carter did.

37-20 flatters England to be honest. 7 of those points were from a classic "14 point try" to use a cliché. New Zealand were on attack, with a 2:1 overlap about 10m from the line. Ojo decided to go for broke and made the intercept by about half-a-finger's length. With the headstart he had because Tuitavake, the winger on his side, was at full pace in the other direction, Sivivatu was in a tackle somewhere and Muliaina was over on that wing he made it home, totally against the run of play.

The second try to Ojo was at least worked for. Tuitavake was pretty much blameless in the first Ojo try. Henry will not be happy with his effort in the second one - Ojo comfortably beating him to the cross-kick you might get away with, when the opposite winger (admittedly "only" from mid-field rather than the opposite wing) ALSO beats you to the kick, well the coach will question your defensive qualities - probably in four letter words.

On that few inches, you might have had 44-13 or worse. 44-13 would have been a fairer reflection of the game really, although you have to think if the All Blacks had got there, they'd have cracked the half-century too. They really were that good.

There was an interesting comment at the end. The Kiwi public believe that England will come with a big physical challenge, which they did for quite a bit of the match. They also believe that England don't have the imagination to win. Again it would seem they were correct. Very few teams keep up with New Zealand at the turn-over. To do that, and to be stealing their line-out ball appreciably often, and still deserve a thrashing - there's got to be something wrong somewhere. You might choose to point at the forwards for keeping the ball and driving slowly a metre at a time, and being driven backwards by the same amount too. But every time the backs got the ball, really New Zealand looked at least as comfortable defending out wide as they did in close. The other way around, the forwards probably made more breaks, but the backs just ran the white line ragged.

Good and bad display from Wales

Watching the SA v Wales match must have had Shaun Edwards in particular pulling his hair out, or it would have if he had any. Gatland too, to a lesser extent.

Wales neglected to tackle too often, and when they did tackle, they all too often allowed offloads over the advantage line, which the Bokke penalised. Wales also spilled the ball far too much, and conceded too many stupid penalties, particularly in the first half. Even more frustratingly it wasn't the new boys that were to blame, well not specially, everyone was guilty of knocking on, stupid penalties were mostly given up by experienced players.

When Wales managed to keep hold of the ball, they looked threatening, particularly when Stephen Jones was ignored in favour of Shane Williams as fly-half (a move that led to Wales' first try) and again when he was replaced by James Hook. Shane William's try was also well worked, and the rest of the world's wingers will look at the way he wrong-footed Habana with awe. Two minutes later his defence against the cross-kick will have impressed too.

In fairness, doing the core jobs - scrum and line-out - the forwards looked pretty good. There were a couple of poor line outs near the try line that Wales will rue, but overall the line-outs were pretty even (not bad when they've got a lock at 2.08m tall, and they take him off to replace him with Victor Matfield), and Wales really dominated at the scrums throughout.

Gatland and Edwards have a smaller job than the score of 43-17 might suggest. Edwards needs to remind his charges, old and new, how to tackle, and work out how to stop the offloads. Gatland needs to work out how to circumvent the team tackles from the Bokke when Wales do attack, and beat them until they don't drop the ball and don't give up stupid penalties. I'd suggest they might also go with Hook next week - S. Jones looked mostly solid, but made the backs look stolid. But, despite playing at altitude, Wales played until the end, complete with stupid penalties, but also a good gang-tackle on Habana to hold him up over the line and prevent him scoring a try.

I said losing closely wouldn't be a disgrace for Wales. This wasn't really close enough - Wales just gave up the ball far too often and led to their own downfall - but there were enough positive moments, and the scrum and line out worked well enough that it wasn't a disaster at least.

NZ v Ireland

It would be fair to say that the weather played a big role in this match - it was hammering with rain and there was a driving wind pretty much straight along the pitch, against the ABs in the first half, against Ireland in the second.

Despite the UK TV commentators, who both seemed very biased pro-Ireland, a first half that ended 8-8 wasn't bad for the ABs, although with a little luck they could have been further ahead. In the second half their superior fitness and speed off the mark, plus the benefit of the wind, stretched that to a comfortable 21-11 win. Looking at the match, it was never really in doubt as far as I was concerned - really it was only the weather and the referee that kept it down to a 10 point margin.

Now, I'm going to try and restrain myself from slating Chris White. I will admit I'm partial to one of these sides, but it did appear he was too. There was lots of commentary about policing the breakdown, and the changes to the laws. Perhaps they missed the bit where the only change was to make life harder with an offside line, and to alter the nature of the kick awarded from penalty to free kick in all the frothing about how evil the ELVs are? Chris White claimed he was just going to referee the laws as normal - so why did every time the Irish maul was going forward and then piled up, it turn out some evil AB had collapsed it, but in the other direction, it was "just a slip" or similar? Why are men in green allowed to pull the scrum half into a ruck (that's a penalty under both law sets) but a hand in a black sleeve goes near a green-clad scrum half and it's a penalty? That's called bias isn't it? When ROG dived into a ruck from the side - and I mean parallel to the 22 from the side, so offside as well, about 3m away from White as he was looking that way, that's not a penalty. Um, under what laws? Ali Williams hits a green player over the ball, driving up if the fact the players feet left the ground is any indication, in a breakdown and then goes down from the hit. Apparently that's "diving over" and worth a penalty. At least it was to Chris White. OK, that might not sound like I restrained myself, but trust me, I did.

The commentators were worse. When the ABs kicked into the wind, every kick was "terrible" and "that's so short" but when Ireland did it was "great into this gale." Um, no. A little fairness doesn't go amiss.

It wasn't a fully polished performance. Carter wasn't at his best. Neither was Muliaina. Once MacDonald came on, the ABs looked a lot more secure. That might sound like a contradiction to my earlier statement that they always looked under control - but both are true. Ireland didn't really look threatening except that once that they scored their try, but the ABs didn't look totally secure. Once MacDonald came on, they did.

Despite the comments of the experts, my comments from yesterday bore fruit. The Munster pack were outplayed in the loose, at the breakdown, at the edges of the breakdown, in the scrum and at line out. That's every single aspect of forward play and the ABs were just better at each of them. The loose forward "experiment" basically worked. There were a couple of times it might have been a bit creaky, but overall they massively outplayed their opposite numbers. And just for the extra fillip, the first AB try occurred because Smith showed his class and beat BOD all ends up, and in particular for a step and for pace.

It's a shame, perhaps, that the weather wasn't better - it did encourage both sides to keep it tight. Whilst there is nothing wrong with that, some variety would have been nice, but the weather was so bad it was never going to happen - by the time the ABs could have been playing with gay abandon because Ireland were totally out of it, the wind and rain was worse and passing the ball was even harder.

I suspect this has settled some butterflies for the ABs. It's worth saying, by the way, their surprise selection of the Highlander's flanker seems inspired. He was on for Soaialo a couple of times and seemed to fit right in. Ireland might go away feeling OK about themselves, but I suspect the Munster pack won't, and shouldn't, and in a match that was played in such lousy weather, if the forwards can't play, you will always lose - as they did.

Tests down under

It's that time of the year when the Northern Hemisphere sides tour the Southern Hemisphere.

We have Wales v South Africa, Ireland v New Zealand and Australia, and England v New Zealand to look forward to.

Of these, Wales v South Africa ought to be the easiest to call, but is probably the hardest. If Wales could take their full Grand Slam side, given SA rugby has a new coach, new combinations and the like, I'd put my money on Wales. But, enough of the Welsh first choice players are injured that I think it's going to be close. My heart says Wales to win, of course, and my head says they can still win, but isn't as convinced as my heart. I think both the matches in this series will be close, and interesting. Whilst it would be nice for Wales to win, at least one if not both, losing both closely won't be a disgrace under the current conditions, remembering they are away to the current world champions and #1 ranked team.

Ireland v NZ is pretty easy to call. Although NZ are rebuilding, if you look at their squad there's nowhere that suggests it's bad. If you say Conrad Smith, one of the classier centres in world rugby, is probably the luckiest man on the squad to be there, it really isn't bad. It could all fall apart of course - how will 8 and 9 get on? How will 10 and 12 get on? In NZ rugby they're both critical questions. Nonu isn't a Brett or Bateman, but he's grown into a good number 12 as well as a very dangerous all round player. Up against that we've got an Ireland side that is still looking stale and sliding. BOD is looking older by the day, the Munster pack has a mix of age and youth, but you'd say that they haven't really dominated in recent games at a high level. They didn't smash Toulouse out of it, and the AB pack is several levels higher than that. NZ to win that one.

Ireland in Australia is harder to call. Australia will be playing for the first time under Robbie Deans. We know that Robbie Deans is an amazing coach at Super-14 level, but in his first season the 'Saders finished rock bottom. Will he take that long to get Australia playing the way he wants? It's not just a team thing, very much the same team, in an amazing turn around won the Super-12s the next year. But, Ireland will be down after NZ, Deans will have had that extra week to work with his players, so, sadly, advantage to the guys in green and gold.

England v New Zealand should be pretty easy to call. Both sides are rebuilding. One side is mid-season, the other at the end of a season, and with an interim coaching group and all the rest. If Graham Henry's got it wrong and Ireland win tomorrow, England could well pounce and do well as the wreckage descends. But, I don't think the first will happen, and I don't think the second will happen either. England still look like they're lacking inspiration and although they might do most of the basics well, grinding NZ down is never easy. New Zealand will win both these matches too.