FInal Warm-Up Matches

Well, the dust has settled, save for the actual games.

Questions suddenly loom though. Having lost 2 matches this year (more than they lost last year or the year before remember) have the ABs lost their matches for this year? Or have they lost momentum and will struggle against Australia/SA if they meet them? Also, their last match cost them (probably) Thompson and quite possibly Read for the tournament. New Zealand is blessed with an incredible number of loose forwards and although I rate Thompson replacing him is not too hard. Read though... he's a genuine contender for best in his position in the world. Losing him is a blow.

England also have questions to answer. A string of injuries... can they risk Moody? How bad is Easter etc. But they have a bigger series of questions too. Flood or Wilkinson at 10? Flood is inventive but not quite the boss that Wilkinson is. Wilkinson can be forced back into his shell - Ireland managed it yesterday - and his shell seems to include aimless, poor kicking from hand and no ability to generate good ball to the outside backs. Should Tuilangi start or Hape? There's no doubt that Hape is a stronger defensive option, but Tuilangi is a better attacking option. But losing 35-28 or 25-20 in a quarter-final is still a loss and an earlier flight home than they'd hope for.

Ireland... OMG, where to start? They're losing their players that have looked good, and whether old heads or young tyros take to the park they look ordinary at best. Actually, they look poor. They look poor like they'd struggle in the ITM cup, and bearing in mind this is the feeder-level (albeit in New Zealand) for Super Rugby, with a mix of teenagers and old hands and fringe AB players the standard is usually good but it shouldn't be up to defeating a decent international team and Ireland have been Europe's dominant side for the last couple of years.

Planning, tinkering, and doubtless much pontificating is due to come in the next 12 days. Finally the talking will be done on the pitch. And predictions? I'd still say the ABs to win it all, but with less confidence. Australia are certainly a threat. South Africa could be. France, England and with slightly more caution Wales are the other realistic contenders. There will be blow-outs, there will be shocks, but there will be weeks of excellent rugby too. Can't wait!

RWC Build up #2

Based on this weekend's action, what's happened to my listings?

Well, Scotland and New Zealand didn't play. But my top 3 places to coach have stayed the same. I still think NZ will most likely win. Australia might not have won convincingly, but win they did, in South Africa. Can't hurt the morale. Ditto Wales. Wales failed to impose themselves at the scrum, but there's still two Lions props to come back all being well. The breakdown and the tackle were immense though and they stopped England too. And when they did manufacture a chance, they took it ruthlessly. Kudos to them.

My bottom 3 places? On balance also the same names, but a slightly different order.

#1 Ireland lost to Scotland and then to France. I didn't see the game, but many more stars and... oops. Are they ageing too much for former glories to see them through? Where does Kidney hide now? No new talent and his stars not performing.

#2 England. Johnson might be playing a very cunning plan, but he must be worried that Hape + Tindall seem to have made a mockery of the amount of ball they had, and that on-field choices to go for tries backfired so badly. On another day they will, and have, beat Wales and not have such dominance of possession and territory. But that failure to exploit the chances they did make that hurt them so much against Wales will hurt them at least in the quarter-finals and possibly in the pool stages too. A loss to Argentina in the pool stages must be a real chance, followed by the ABs in the quarters. Even if they avoid that, France in the quarters in New Zealand... playing like that England will lose. Johnson might know his 30 by now, but does he have a plan for his teams?

#3 SA. Yes, they lost. But the big stars were out for their first game in a while and it was close. You have to imagine they'll get more match fit for next week and although starting against a potentially rampant Wales (especially if they beat Argentina next week) might not be the best way for them to start, and Fiji and Samoa might not be as easy as you'd like either if the Boks do lose to Wales, it's a group even I sadly expect them to win. But miracles do happen, and Wales v SA as the opening match plays into The Dragons' hands (or claws) you'd have to think, especially if the ABs minus Carter and McCaw do the job next week.

RWC Build up

If I could be an international coach, where would I be?

Well, #1 is obviously New Zealand. McCaw is coming back into form. Slade looks like he might grow into excellent cover for Carter and already looks great as a utility back (he can play well at 10, 11, 14, 15) and all the coaching headaches except at maybe 7 and definitely 10, seem to be choosing the right players from a pool of excellent players at all positions. Unless Henry is suddenly afflicted with a touch of the PdVs he might get criticism from partizan supporters of a particular player who is unlucky but it's tiny differences rather than clear choices all over the park.

#2 would be Australia. Yes, based on last week's evidence Australia are going to get to the final and lose to the ABs but... it's a one-off game and there's a chance to get some moral boosting by stuffing the Boks in SA and then beating the ABs in Australia, or at least showing signs of improvement against them.

#3 would be Wales. That might seem odd, but when you're missing Hook, 2 Lions props, Lee Byrne and the like. When a side disrupted by losing their first choice 10 in the warm-up and their winger with a broken ankle too manage to outscore England 3 tries to 2 and only lose on a couple of drop-goals and at Twickenham you've got to say that's not bad. There is a need for improvement, but the training can change from the hard fitness work to the skills and combinations, plus some real quality to come back - it might not work but it's a good start.

Who wouldn't I be?

#1 on this list - least desirable place: Ireland. The mix of players returning from injury and second choice players looked poor. Very poor in fact. They deserved to get hammered by Scotland and it is only because their team made several bad choices that they weren't.

#2 South Africa. Two humiliating, massive defeats on the road. Ouch. OK, you can try and spin to the team that the first choice players won't be so bad, but that puts you in the Ireland position - second choices are very poor. And smarting from a defeat but confident overall, how will a hardened Australia do against players returning from "injury?" If they lose that, they've got a rampaging AB visit to try and cope with too. Ouch.

#3 England. Johnson may have most of his 30 decided, but it's not clear quite who they are, nor that he's got a range of good choices. He does in some places but not many. What looks like a strongly attacking midfield and outside backs combination was outscored by Wales in tries. Not great.

Who doesn't make the lists?

Scotland... There's work to be done. I'm not sure they'll do well, but on balance more positive than negative. France... didn't play. Argentina ditto.

RWC Fever

Don't get me wrong, I will be glued to the TV at some obscure times of night and day in 5 weeks time, for the following few weeks.

But I am more than a little annoyed by the speculation in the rugby press.

Nathan Sharpe has been left out of the Australia squad for this Saturday's Bledisloe Cup and Tri-Nations clash with New Zealand. People are saying this means he'll be left out of the 30 man squad for the world cup.

Why?

There's a 22-man squad for Saturday and 30 for the world cup. We've seen Australia, South Africa, and less overtly New Zealand rest key players. Where, for example, were the battles between Thorn and Matfield last Saturday? Both players were rested, that's where. No one thinks either of them will, barring injury, be left at home in September. So why must Sharpe be washed up and out of Deans' thinking? He's a veteran lock. Everyone, certainly Robbie Deans, knows what he offers the squad. He could easily be in the match-day 22 for each match Australia play in the world cup, whether starting or on the bench. OK, resting him for what could be a huge game in the Tri-Nations seems like an odd choice, but it gives Deans a chance to see 3 locks up against the All Blacks, which is a big test for them, and rest his veteran player.

Of course he could be out of favour and never pull on the green and gold again. But reading that into this choice is silly. I'm sure both Deans and Henry have talked to their larger squad. Players like Fruen have been told "Sorry, there's too much competition for your place this year, but we want you for 2012, and if there's an injury to those ahead of you, we'll still be taking you," no one doubts Kieran Read will be back into the squad. Picking wingers is going to be a nightmare - because all four he's tried so far, probable or possible say, have really put their hand up and looked good. Sharp could be dropped, but he could be rested and know that's all it is. We don't know. So why the shouting?