Friday, June 27, 2008

Australia v France

This will be an odd match I suspect. France are definitely under-strength - loads of the regular giants of French rugby are at home given the top 14 season has still not (quite) finished - semi-finals last weekend, finals this weekend, so no players from Stade Francais, Toulouse etc. That's a LOT of big names absent.

French sides don't always travel well either, although around in Europe France don't seem to mind in most years, but this is hardly a vintage French side and the wheels could just come off.

But, at the same time this is France. Those mavericks that despite a terrible RWC at home, rose to defeat (with a lot of help from the referee and linesmen) the All Blacks. That 4 RWCs ago again rose to beat the All Blacks, convincingly. No matter how weak they appear, we all know they could do it again.

Then there is the scrum. It is a truism of French rugby that they love to scrum - but it's true, and it's almost certainly the foundation of their most sublime backs play - the fact that their forwards tend to mince up and suck in opposing forwards. This may not be the most experienced French pack, but they will still scrummage to a high level. Australia and the scrum... well we all know how suspect that can be, and although Deans may work wonders over the next 3-and-a-bit years, he's not had time to do it yet. France will almost certainly have the upper hand there, possibly enough to let their banks cut loose, and if they gel, they are certainly good enough to slice through just about any defence.

As always with France a real prediction is impossible - it depends on which France turn up. I think it's unlikely the great France will - too young, too far from home, too tired at the end of the season, to little time together will all contribute to that, but there is still that chance. Let's say about 16% that the great France will show and rip Robbie Deans' preparations to shreds - by 20 points or more. The other 84% - Australia to win, although not that convincingly: they will have the upper hand in some places, but their weakness at the scrum will stop them running away as convincingly as they might.

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