Saturday, November 22, 2008

They're just better than us

The big three Southern Hemisphere sides that is.

Wales for 40 minutes of almost flawless rugby on their part, stayed even with an All Blacks side that didn't look quite settled - as many All Blacks sides haven't in first halves this year. But when the All Blacks stepped up from a rusty first gear to a comfortable second gear, and Wales fell back a little from their flawless best, the difference in class was obvious. The All Blacks said before hand that this would be their sternest test, and I think they were right - Wales looked like they were pushing them close for half the match and didn't really look out of sorts, just a poorer side, in the second.

England, on the other hand, were roundly, soundly and thoroughly beaten. They looked poor against a South African side that had stuttered against Wales and Scotland, and fell to their heaviest ever defeat at home. Oh dear. Perhaps they will end rather lower in the 6N than I expected if they don't turn it around soon.

But why? I think the ELVs, in particular the SH set of them, is making the difference more obvious. The SH-ELVs have lead to faster games, more running, fast taps instead of kicks at goal and the like. This is leading to fitter players, and so when you give the McCaws, Burgers and Smiths of the rugby world the time to catch their breath with the kicks they're even more dominant. It has led, too, to better defending. Because you might be out of place and alignment with a free kick, everyone has to play a stronger role in defence wherever they are. Sure, a winger will usually skin a prop for pace still, and you have you better and worse tacklers on the side, but all of the players on the SH sides understand the defensive patterns of the whole team and can adapt to it and they will attempt to defend, whether successful or not, and against the NH sides they usually manage it. On the back of this better defensive understanding comes two things - better ball retention and better understanding as well in attack. Now, in fairness, both of these elements have more or less been there for all of the time I've watched rugby, but when you watch the internationals it is basically only Wales that look inventive enough from the NH to trouble the SH sides (I think they might beat Australia on the basis of their first half), and that is due to their speed and running lines being better.

The SH sides are beatable of course - but it requires a speed of thought and action on both attack and defence that the SH-ELVs enhance and the NH-ELVs don't. They're making the gulf bigger, and unless someone realises it and changes the ELVs they won't get closer I suspect.

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