Saturday, March 14, 2009

Wales and Ireland on collision course

Wales won in Italy, no surprise with the result, but they didn't look at all good. Ireland won in Scotland, which also really doesn't surprise me, but it was a close call, probably closer than anyone expected.

The reasons for these "not being good" were different I think.

With Wales there were two things. In particular 5 changes in the pack, mostly in the tight, disrupted the scrum, and to some extent the speed of ball from the ruck too. That pretty much stopped Wales getting quality ball most of the time, and that dragged the game down into the mire.

But, in addition, I think that all-important balance was missing too often. Hook and Powell in particular should be identified here. Don't get me wrong, they are both seriously high quality players. But, for both of them, they have a wide standard deviation - they have moments of sheer, dazzling brilliance, but they have moments of mediocrity too. One player like that in that 8, 9, 10 axis is OK, probably desirable even. Two players like that, there are too many ways things can go wrong and throw the rest of the team off, and that certainly contributed to the poor performance.

Ireland, on the other hand, looked like they choked. I think Declan Kidney is lucky that his side went in down by a few points - Scotland really should have been further ahead - but also he could turn around and say "If you carry on playing like this, you'll be another Irish side that isn't good enough to be the second Grand Slam winners" and then let his players go out and know that they had to perform to win the game, whilst knowing at the same time they were close enough to manage it.

And, of course, if England lose tomorrow, France aren't out of it either. If Wales win next week, which is certainly possible, they need to win by 13 points to beat Ireland on points difference: that's doable if not necessarily likely on today's performance. But, if France stuff Italy (certainly possible too) they could well be ahead at the end of the weekend. Fun, fun, fun.

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